美联储-公司债务到期与商业周期波动（英）

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemInternational Finance Discussion PapersISSN 1073-2500 (Print)ISSN 2767-4509 (Online)Number 1409May 2025Corporate Debt Maturity and Business Cycle FluctuationsFrancesco Ferrante, Andrea Prestipino, Immo SchottPlease cite this paper as:Ferrante, Francesco, Andrea Prestipino, and Immo Schott (2025).“Corporate DebtMaturityandBusinessCycleFluctuations,”InternationalFinanceDiscussionPa-pers1409.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2025.1409.NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDPs) are preliminary materials circulated to stimu-late discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors anddo not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. Referencesin publications to the International Finance Discussion Papers Series (other than acknowledgement) shouldbe cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Recent IFDPs are availableon the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from theSocial Science Research Network electronic library at www.ssrn.com.Corporate Debt Maturity and Business Cycle Fluctuations∗Francesco Ferrante, Andrea Prestipino, Immo SchottApril 2025AbstractLong-term debt is the main source of firm-financing in the U.S. We show that account-ing for debt maturity is crucial for understanding business cycle dynamics. We developa macroeconomic model with defaultable long-term debt and equity adjustment costs.With long-term debt, firms have an incentive to increase leverage in order to dilute thevalue of outstanding debt. When equity issuance is costly, this incentive helps firms raisemore debt through a debt dilution channel and mitigates the decline in net worth througha balance sheet channel, dampening the decline in investment in response to a negativefinancial shock. Using firm-level data, we estimate equity issuance costs and incorporateour findings into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Accounting for debt maturityand the cost of equity financing implies that credit supply shocks are the primary driversof business cycle fluctuations.JEL classification: E32, E44, E51Keywords: Long-term debt; Financial frictions; Debt overhang; Macroeconomic activity.∗Ferrante: Federal Reserve Board (francesco.ferrante@frb.gov); Prestipino: Federal Reserve Board (an-drea.prestipino@frb.gov); Schott: Federal Reserve Board (immoschott@gmail.com). The views in this paperare solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board ofGovernors of the Federal Reserve System, or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System.We are grateful to Paul Scanlon, Todd Messer, as well as to participants at various conferences and semi-nars for their comments. A previous version of this paper was circulated under the title ”The Macroeconomi