英文【高盛】Big Yellow (BYG.L)- 需求环境低迷；中性

Key Data __________________________________ GS Forecast ________________________________ GS Factor Profile ____________________________ Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.Market cap: £1.9bn / $2.6bnEnterprise value: £2.4bn / $3.2bn3m ADTV: £3.4mn / $4.5mnUnited KingdomEurope Real EstateM&A Rank: 3Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No3/253/26E3/27E3/28ERevenue (£ mn) New177.8183.2199.3216.5Revenue (£ mn) Old180.2190.3201.2220.4EPS (p) New57.9259.5560.8564.19EPS (p) Old55.7659.4860.6165.59Earnings yield (%)5.26.06.26.5Dividend yield (%)4.24.85.05.2EPRA NTAPS (p)1,296.901,328.201,385.231,440.98ROCE (%)4.44.34.34.6ROAE (%)4.64.64.54.69/243/259/25E3/26EEPS (p)28.1529.7730.6428.90BYG.L relative to Europe CoverageBYG.L relative to Europe Real EstateGrowthFinancial ReturnsMultipleIntegratedPercentile20th40th60th80th100th Post Big Yellow’s FY24/25 results, we update our adj. EPS by 0% to -2% for FY26E to FY28E. We are -1% / -5% below Visible Alpha Consensus Data for FY26E / FY27E as we expect limited occupancy improvements in the near term. Our NTA/sh forecasts decrease by -2%. Our 12m PT is unchanged at 1,110p, implying 12% upside potential; we maintain our Neutral rating. Revenue growth continues to decelerate: We expect that filling vacancies will remain challenging in a continued low growth UK environment and in the context of broader global macroeconomic uncertainty. Forward demand indicators are muted, with reported prospect numbers down 3%y/y in FY24/25 and UK Google searches for “Self storage near me” ticking down in May. We forecast occupancy to remain broadly stable at 80.3%/81% in FY26E/FY27E (FY24/25: 79.1%). Rate growth has moderated to 3.2%y/y since its recent peak of 8.6%y/y (FY23) and we forecast +3% into FY26 (FY25: +3.2%y/y) as inflation stabilises. BYG should also benefit from falling cost inflation from current levels of 4% seen in the 2H and as financing costs continue to moderate. Solid balance sheet supports development pipeline: BYG’s balance sheet remains strong with ND/EBITDA sitting at 3.1x, ICR at 6.1x and LTV at 12.8%, the lowest in the sector. The development pipeline now stands at 14 sites (inc replacement store at Staples Corner) with 9 sites currently under construction (with £161mil cost to complete) and 3 expected to complete in FY26. The pipeline is expected to generate NOI of £36.6mil, an NOI yield of 8.7%. Valuation fair: We believe BYG’s valuation essentially reflects the upside and downside risks, trading at 6.3% on earnings yield, above its long term average of 4.6%, and a discount of 31% to P/NTA, below its long term average of 0%. BYG.L12m Price Target: 1,110pPrice: 987pUpside: 12.5%Big Yellow (BYG.L) Subdued demand environment; Neutral28 May 2025 | 7:31PM BST Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity