英文【高盛】Fortescue Metals Group (FMG.AX)- 铁桥项目名称推迟至2028财年，产能扩张与GSe保持一致，工艺流程成焦点；中性

FMG has provided an update on the ramp-up of its Iron Bridge magnetite project (FMG 69% ownership) delaying the ramp-up by 18-24 months and is now targeting nameplate capacity of 22Mtpa by FY28 (previously targeted for Sep 2025 back in 2023). This implies a 5-yr ramp-up, which would place the project as one of the slower ramp-ups of a mining processing plant globally of this size. Regarding the ramp-up profile, FMG now expect shipments of 10-12Mt in FY26, ramping to a run-rate of 16-20Mtpa by 2H FY27, and nameplate of 22Mtpa by FY28, with further process optimisation requirements anticipated although nothing specific has been disclosed. There was no revision to FY25 guidance of 5-9Mt (GSe 6.8Mt). The production profile is in-line with our assumptions, although we continue to model maximization production of 18Mtpa or ~20% below nameplate. We note that the revised ramp-up profile is ~10% below VA consensus estimates. We make no changes to our EBITDA estimates and note that Iron Bridge (IB) contributes just ~US$300mn or ~5% to our FMG FY27-28 EBITDA, and we value the project at US$2bn which is ~5% of our FMG NAV. Despite the slower than expected ramp-up and the ~US$1.4bn capex increase on the original project budget of US$2.6bn, we think FMG did a good job building the project during COVID and highlight that the US$4bn total capex equates to a much lower capital intensity of ~US$200/t vs. other completed magnetite projects at closer to >US$300/t. However, we will continue to be impressed if IB does achieve >18Mtpa considering that 22Mtpa is a stretched target based on the plant design (lack of equipment redundancy and air classifiers untested in mining). Regarding the technical risks and flowsheet: We first highlighted the air classifiers as unique to this project and the mining nindustry back in 2022, and also flagged the technical risk of using this technology. The processing design (see Exhibit 3) can be split into two parts: the dry circuit nand the wet circuit, with two of each, called circuits A & B. The front end of the dry circuit is reasonably conventional having primary gyratory crushing, secondary cone crushing, and then tertiary crushing using High Pressure Grinding Rolls (HPGRs) which are the largest in the world and reduce the feed to <6mm. Using HPGRs is not overall common in the mining industry but has Paul Young +61(2)9321-8302 | paul.young1@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Chris Bulgin +61(2)9321-8936 | chris.bulgin@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty LtdFortescue Metals Group (FMG.AX): Iron Bridge nameplate pushed to FY28, ramp-up in-line with GSe, flowsheet in focus; Neutral22 May 2025 | 6:27PM AEST Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC cert