英文【高盛】中国思考人民币的复兴

Unlike in US-China Trade War 1.0 from Mar 2018 to Jan 2020, during which nUSDCNY rose from the low of 6.26 to the high of 7.18 (i.e. 13% depreciation), the Rmb has strengthened 1% vis-a-vis the USD since “Liberation Day”. Commonly-cited explanations for the currency stability/strength include the nintervention from the PBoC, improved competitiveness and diversification of the Chinese exports sector compared to 2017, likely undervaluation of the Rmb (especially on a real effective basis), and the broad Dollar weakness and the resulting diversification demand away from Dollar assets. GS economists now expect USDCNY to reach 7.20, 7.10 and 7.00 on a 3M, n6M and 12M horizon, implying 3% FX gains over the next 12 months. Empirically, Chinese stocks tend to perform well when the currency rises (vs. nthe USD and a basket of currency), consistent with the trading patterns for most Asian EMs. Conceptually, Rmb appreciation could benefit Chinese stocks via the accounting, nfundamental, risk premium, and portfolio flow channels: We estimate every 1% of Rmb increase versus the USD could boost Chinese equities by 3%, including translation gains, everything else being equal. Sectorally, Consumer Discretionary, Property, and Diversified Financials n(Brokers) typically outperform when the Rmb appreciates, and vice versa for Defensives. The potential FX resilience lends support to our Overweight stance on Chinese nstocks, thematic bias for domestic, Rmb-denominated assets, moderately improved corporate earnings outlook, stronger foreign flows to China equity, but possibly moderating pace of Southbound net buying in the months ahead. We refresh our Rmb Appreciation Winners and Losers Lists, 20 stocks in neach, for investors to express their FX views in the equity market. The performance spreads between the two lists have exhibited a monthly correlation/beta of 60%/3.0x with USDCNY in the past 3 years.Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Timothy Moe, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Si Fu, Ph.D. +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Kevin Wang, CFA +852-2978-2446 | kevin.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.China Musings The Renaissance of the Renminbi26 May 2025 | 12:12AM HKT Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. 1. During US-China Trade War 1.0 from March 2018 when President Trump launched Section 301 trade investigation on US$50bn of Chinese goods to January 2020 when the two sides signed the Phase-one trade deal, Chinese equities had fallen 8% while the Rmb had weakened against the USD by 9%. In contrast, in the latest episode in which both countries had imposed more than 100% effective tariff rates on each other at one point before agreeing on a 90-day trade truce that will expire