联合国贸易发展委员会-拯救弱势群体：新关税负担的代价（英）

Sparing the vulnerableUNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENTThe cost of new tariff burdensIntroductionThe participation of vulnerable economies in the global economy remains stubbornly low, despite provisions for special and differential treatment in the multilateral rulebook. The new tariff tensions could further threaten the little gains made by least developed countries, small island developing States and landlocked developing countries.Vulnerable economies account for only a small fraction of US imports. They contribute less than 0.5% to the US trade deficit and would have a marginal contribution to its tariff revenue.Yet, they could face some of the highest new US tariffs, resulting in a decline of vital exports and posing substantial risks to their development. 1Vulnerable economies refer to: least developed countries, small island developing States, landlocked developing countries. 2Vulnerable economies’ share of global exports is very small.Share of global exports and population in 2023 (%)Source: UNCTAD Secretariat, based on UN Comtrade and World Bank for the year 2023.Note: Small island developing States excluding Singapore.Share of global exports (%)Share of global population (%)Vulnerable economies2.716.71.31.30.30.8Least developed countriesLandlocked developing countriesSmall island developing States7.214.4 3And this has hardly changed over the past decade.Vulnerable economies’ share of global exportsSource: UNCTAD Secretariat, based on UNCTADStat.Note: Small island developing States excluding Singapore.Least developedcountriesLandlocked developingcountriesSmall island developingStates199520052015 20240.01.02.0%199520052015 2024199520052015 2024SDG target 17.11Significantly increase the exports of developing countries, in particular with a view to doubling the least developed countries’ share of global exports by 2020 4Source: UNCTAD Secretariat, based on UN Comtrade for the year 2023.Note: Small island developing States excluding Singapore.The US is vital for their exports, yet they make up only a small part of US imports.Relative importance of exports to the US in terms of vulnerable economies’ exports and US imports.Trading partners' perspectiveshare of vulnerable countries'total exports (%) to the USUnited States' perspectiveshare of the United States'total imports (%)Vulnerable economiesSmall island developing StatesLeast developed countriesLandlocked developing countries0.60.90.28.01.68.92.125.3 5Source: UNCTAD Secretariat, based on UN Comtrade.Note: Small island developing States excluding Singapore. In fact, they contribute only 0.3% to the US trade deficit.Vulnerable countries’ share of US imports and contribution to the US goods trade deficit in 2023 (%)1.6%0.3%0.9%1.5%0.6%-1.2%0.2%-0.2%VulnerableeconomiesLeast developedcountriesSmall islanddeveloping StatesLandlockeddeveloping countriesShare in total US importsContribution to the US trade defcit 6New US tariffs are an extra burden for vulnerable econ