英文【高盛】日本出口追踪第三期企业透露的信息（截至2025年5月16日）

The GS Japan team launched the Japan Export Tracker in April 2025, with a focus on commentary from Japanese corporates on the impact of tariffs. Following on from the first and second editions, in this third tracker we summarize commentary from corporates that announced results over May 12-16. Together, the three editions track commentary from 127 companies in our Japan tech, auto, capital goods, and retail/consumer related coverage (accounting for c.37% of TSE market cap). As before, we focus on: (1) the impact of tariffs, (2) actions taken in response to tariffs, and (3) changes in assumptions for the FY25 business environment and/or medium- to long-term strategies, including factors besides tariffs. The 10 findings/implications from the first/second trackers are largely unchanged. However, we highlight four further developments in our third tracker: Impact of tariffs by industry: We now have a clearer picture of the forecast total impact of tariffs, which comes to at least ¥4.5 tn, with ¥3.6 tn (c.80%) attributable to automakers/tiremakers. Industrial electronics, games & entertainment, construction machinery each account for c.4-6%, and electronic components for c.3%. Tariff countermeasures/price pass-through: Differences in countermeasures by industry/among companies have become clearer. The net impact relative to the gross impact of tariffs is c.70% for automakers (30% mitigation), 20-60% for construction machinery and auto parts-related companies (40-80% mitigation), and zero for tires (i.e., 100% mitigation). Many other B2B companies (upstream supply chain) expect to achieve a high degree of mitigation. Corporate governance reforms: During the tracking period for this third edition, investor interest was high in Sony Group, Kyocera, and Kuraray. While each company is in a different phase, investor attention is already shifting from tariffs to the degree of progress in corporate governance. Opportunities: In addition to seeing potential opportunities in downtrading, investment in efficiency, and the materialization of US semiconductor investment, companies increasingly noted an upturn in areas related to China capex, suggesting potential for this to emerge as another theme. Daiki Takayama +81(3)4587-9870 | daiki.takayama@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Yuichiro Isayama +81(3)4587-9806 | yuichiro.isayama@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Kota Yuzawa +81(3)4587-9863 | kota.yuzawa@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Sho Kawano +81(3)4587-9905 | sho.kawano@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Ryo Harada +81(3)4587-9865 | ryo.harada@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Takeru Adachi +81(3)4587-4067 | takeru.adachi@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Shuhei Nakamura +81(3)4587-9932 | shuhei.nakamura@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Atsushi Ikeda +81(3)4587-9940 | atsushi.ikeda@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Chikai Tanaka, CFA +81(3)4587-9840 | chikai.tanaka@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Minami Munakata +81(3)4587-9830 | mi