英文【高盛】宏观信贷观点持有模式（Karoui）

Back to the drawing board, with some caveats. In early March, we revised our spread forecasts wider to reflect a more persistent repricing of risk premium, especially in the USD market. After briefly nearing the peak levels implied by our full-year forecast path on April 8th, USD credit spreads have retraced the bulk of their widening from the February 19th tights. We are adjusting our full-year spread forecast path tighter (Exhibit 1). The takeaway from recent weeks is clear: the policy shifts that initially drove risk premia higher have softened, effectively acting as a more persuasive circuit breaker than we had expected. Tactically, the tailwind from the US-China detente, alongside the resilience of the hard data and potentially some forward recovery in the soft data, will likely continue to support risk appetite. The recent easing in financial conditions also reduces the risk of an abrupt recession and affords the economy additional time to adjust, prompting our economists to upgrade their growth forecasts. That said, the stagflationary impulse from trade policy and the subsequent downward pressure on consumer and business spending are not going away, warranting the retention of some additional risk premium as a baseline case in the third quarter (again, Exhibit 1). And while we acknowledge that strong demand technicals may allow the market to look through a quarter or two of weak data, we also think recession risks are still too elevated to be fully shrugged off. As such, we view the recent significant decline in volatility as an attractive opportunity to reset hedges (Exhibit 2). Lotfi Karoui +1(917)343-1548 | lotfi.karoui@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCMacro Credit Views: Holding pattern (Karoui)13 May 2025 | 1:31PM EDT Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Still a high bar to derail total returns. Our revised spread forecasts clearly do not point to a recessionary outcome. However, should recession risk reprice more than our baseline forecasts, we think total returns will likely hold up better than in the last two downturns, especially in IG. Two tailwinds will likely allow for greater capital preservation. First, today’s healthier market microstructure greatly limits the risk of a liquidity dislocation in the bond market as was the case during the COVID shock or in the run-up to the global financial crisis. In the event of a recession, we expect USD IG and HY spreads would likely widen to the vicinity of 175-200bp and 650-700bp, respectively. For context, IG and HY spreads ranged from 200-300bp and 650-1100bp, respectively, between March and May of 2020. Second, we think the base yield Exhibit 1: We are revising our forecasts tighter, yet we maintain a baseline view that spreads will widen again from current levels Current2025Q32025Q4USD spreadsUSD IGnew1