英文【摩根大通】高评级和高收益债券每周报告：番茄、土豆、关税和税收

North America Credit Research16 May 2025J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comUS Credit ResearchCarla Casella, CFA AC(1-212) 270-6798carla.casella@jpmorgan.comYaakov Musheyev(1-212) 834 5865yaakov.a.musheyev@jpmorgan.comMorgan Morrissey(1-212) 834-2383morgan.morrissey@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCHY RetailUnderweightACINeutralBBWINeutral (OW ’33s/’37s)GAPNeutralKSSNeutral (OW CDS)MNeutral (UW CDS)MIKOverweightMUSANeutralJWNNot RatedPRGOverweightQVCNNeutral (OW ‘25s & '29s)RADNeutralSBHNeutralUPBDNeutralVSCOOverweightWBANRHG Retail - Non-FoodUnderweightHG Retail - Food/DrugUnderweightAZOOverweightCOSTUnderweightHDUnderweightKRUnderweightLOWNeutralMCDUnderweightTGTUnderweightWMTNeutralSource: J.P. MorganCredit markets and equities were better on the week on generally favorable macro data (CPI, PPI, JOLTS, Retail Sales). Over the past 5 days, the SPX returned 4.53%, reversing last week’s declines out of the gates with favorable tariff narrative on Monday and nothing surprising out of the Reconciliation bill. Our HG strategist, Eric Beinstein, lowered his year-end spread target to 95 from 125 (in today’s daily). The JPM HY Earnings Tracker (keep in mind HY retail earnings have barely started) continues to show more beats than misses, but guidance skews a bit more to the negative (we would attest to that from our Consumer/Food/Retail reporters so far). Treasuries widened this week, 5yr +7bps to 4.05% and the 10yr +5bps to 4.43%. The market is now pricing in 2 rate cuts this year, and our economists pushed back their expectations for when the Fed starts to cut to Dec from Sept. The JULI returned 0.1%, with HG Retail flat (underperforming). JPHY returned +0.72%, with HY Retail outperforming considerably, +1.12% reversing last week’s decline, driven by FL, up 12pts on the DKS news. By ratings: lower quality outperformed, with As flat, BBBs +0.2%, BBs +0.62%, Bs +0.74%, and CCCs +1.02%. Macro & deals trumped earnings this week, with DKS buying FL and better-than-feared consumer macro data. On the earnings front, SBH missed, cautioning on a soft consumer macro as well as strong cold/flu season causing consumers (or stylists) to cancel hair appointments. WMT beat (a Port of Safety with Torque), but drove a lot of headlines with comments that ANY tariffs will mean price increases for the consumer. KSS refinanced its July '25 maturity with secured notes. Earnings pick up next week with HD Tues, LOW, TGT and VFC on Wed, and AAP on Thurs. We’ve included our upcoming earnings calendar as well as the rolling recap below. (Equity notes linked to tickers above.)Weekly Blue Light Special:•In CDS, our trade of the week is being long-risk (sell CDS) for KSS 5yr,still 34.5 points upfront even after tightening 7 points since mid-April; CDS remains well wide of the 52-week average +19. KSS refinancing this week leaves it with no material maturities until the $400mn 5.125s in ’30 (excluding the ABL that matures in 2028) – see note and model below. The downside