英文【高盛】收紧我们12个月利差目标预期，但仍保持防御性

Summary of Views: Revising Our 12-Month Spread Target Tighter, But nRemaining Defensive A case for ‘less wider’ spreads ... The de-escalation in the US-China otrade tensions has led our US economics team to upgrade their growth forecasts and take down their 12-month recession probability by 10 percentage points to 35%. The associated relief in global risk sentiment has seen EM sovereign spreads retracing part or all of their post ‘Liberation Day’ widening, with more tightening the higher the ratings (Exhibit 1), as in DM and Asia credit. Therefore, many sovereign spreads have moved back to historical tights and/or further away from pricing the peak of a US recession (Exhibit 2). With the hard data still holding up and the global growth outlook ‘less bad’, we think spreads should also be ‘less wide’ than anticipated in early April. We tighten our 12-month EM hard currency sovereign spread target by 100bp, to 400bp from 500bp previously. ... But remaining defensive ... This new spread target compares to ocurrent levels of ~331bp, and is still somewhat wider than the 12-month target of 350bp that we came into the year with, so our forecast still implies a significant amount of widening. In our view, this is due to recession odds remaining high and elevated uncertainty on (i) future direction of US policy and (ii) if, and by how much, the hard data will deteriorate following recent weakness in the soft data. In such an environment we still think the defensive approach we have been recommending makes sense. In particular, we have been screening for longs and shorts based on their sensitivity to US growth pricing and rate volatility shocks and to downside oil price shocks. In our view, these are all shocks that could come and go even if the US economy avoids a recession while the market tries to determine the depth and duration of potential weakness in the data. Given that our outlook for oil prices still includes Brent prices being near or below US$60/bbl this year and next, we continue to think that oil exposure is a key factor in screening for hedges. In that context, recent price action provides a fresh opportunity to reset hedges, as in the DM space. We still think underweights in (i) the Dominican Republic, Brazil, Turkey and Jordan can protect against US Victor Engel +44(20)7051-3862 | victor.engel@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Kamakshya Trivedi +44(20)7051-4005 | kamakshya.trivedi@gs.com Goldman Sachs InternationalEM Sovereign Credit Monitor Revising Our 12-Month Spread Target Tighter, But Remaining Defensive20 May 2025 | 2:09PM BST Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. growth pricing and rate volatility shocks, with favourable pricing in all four relative to spread history (Exhibit 2) and (ii) Colombia, Bahrain and Oman can protect against further downsid