英文【高盛】追踪美国供应链拥堵情况：高盛供应链拥堵指数5月19日；周度指数略有下降，指数等级维持在‘2’

Our weekly bottleneck scale remained at ‘2’ this week, but the absolute level of the congestion index decreased slightly on a sequential basis (index -1% w/w; Exhibit 2). For this week’s scale and index, the number of container ships waiting to dock and unload goods along the West Coast was unchanged at 1, while backlogs along the East Coast were unchanged at 5 (Exhibit 6). West Coast rail intermodal traffic growth decelerated on average versus last week (up ~4% YoY; Exhibit 7), while rail service metrics were largely mixed sequentially. Chassis dwell times were lower on average at US ports this week (Exhibit 9), while ocean container shipping rates (China to US West Coast) stood at -38% YoY versus last week’s -32% level (Exhibit 10). 2110Fully OpenFully BottleneckedGS Supply Chain Congestion ScaleWeek of 5/19/2025 Scale is based solely off weekly metrics to give more granularity on high frequency data indications; see Appendix for scale that combines weekly and monthly metrics Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchJordan Alliger +1(212)357-4913 | jordan.alliger@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Andrzej Tomczyk, CFA +1(212)357-4445 | andrzej.tomczyk@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Paul Stoddard +1(801)744-3761 | paul.x.stoddard@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCTracking U.S. Supply Chain Congestion GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale: May 19th; Weekly Index Down Slightly, Scale Unchanged at ‘2’19 May 2025 | 4:09PM EDT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. As a reminder (and to help reiterate why and how we construct the index), please refer to the Appendix following Exhibit 17. Additionally, for further clarity on tracked congestion metrics, please refer to the glossary following Exhibit 19. Transport Subsectors to Watch as Congestion Eases The key question remains whether the last stumbling blocks around congestion ease in the US - notably the improving inventory situation as well as moderating East Coast port backlogs, and of course any potential strike-related work stoppages around US East/Gulf-Coast ports - as well as any potential demand pull forward related to potential tariffs. Should supply chain pressures broadly continue to mitigate, then it is conceivable we could see the index being back to a ‘1’ in 2025. As we highlighted what could happen when we first introduced the index, labor and equipment availability is improving alongside demand moderation, both helping the fall in the index. With the dramatic easing that alrea