英文【Bernstein】全球储能电动革命分化——哪些电池制造商在电动汽车领域的布局最佳？

14 May 2025Global Energy StorageElectric Revolution: Divergence - Which battery makers have thebest EV exposure?Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.comBrian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.comHengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.comWelcome to the 2025 edition of Bernstein’s Electric Revolution series - our annual cross-sector look at the transformation of the EV landscape. This year’s theme is divergence:while China’s EV market pushes ahead with scale and innovation, the West is slowing, facingdemand headwinds, policy uncertainty, and rising costs. The result? A bifurcated global EVindustry, with distinct implications for OEMs, suppliers, energy players, and investors. In thisnote we review the relationships between OEM’s and battery makers and how this is likely toimpact future sales.CATL maintained its leading market share in 2024 at 36% (+0.5%-points), while thatof LGES declined to 12% (-2.7%-points) and SDI was 4% (-1.3%-points). Althoughpart of this is attributed to EV acceleration in China and deceleration in the west, Chinesebattery cell makers are gaining market share in Europe. In China, the M/S of major batterycell makers was stable and CATL maintained 42% M/S. In Europe, CATL increased M/Sto 39% (vs. 36% in 2023) gaining share from Volkswagen, Ford and Hyundai-Kia, at theexpense of Korean companies. In the US, both LGES and SK On gained market share by6%-points and 3%-points respectively, while CATL (Tesla) and SDI (Rivian) lost share.CATL has the most diversified OEM customer base. Other battery makers havehigher customer concentration risk, notably LGES and Tesla, SDI and BMW, SK Onand Hyundai-Kia. For CATL, Tesla (16% exposure in 2024), Geely (12%), VW (11%) andBMW (6%) matter the most, but it also has a long tail of others. For LGES, Tesla (41%),VW (17%) and GM (15%) are the key customers. For SDI, BMW (43%), VW (20%) andRivian (18%) matter the most, while SK On is highly dependent on Hyundai-Kia (49%) andPanasonic dependent on Tesla (98%).China EV market is on track for another year of rapid growth, while ex-ChinaVolkswagen and Hyundai-Kia which have guided to 50% EV sales growth. LeadingChinese OEMs like BYD and Geely are also expected to grow EV sales by 30-50% forFY2025. For US OEMs, the outlook is challenging with pure EV companies Tesla and Riviangiving more conservative guidance, while legacy OEMs such as Ford and GM still activelyembracing the electrification. The consensus for Tesla EV sales growth this year is -3%.Among European OEMs, Volkswagen is the most positive with their target implying BEVgrowth of 20%-70% (45% at mid point). Hyundai Motor (which SK On is dependent on) alsoguided to increase its EV sales volume by 54%.For 2025 SK On (+39%), BYD (+38%) and CATL (+23%) are expected to have thefastest battery demand growth. For CATL Volkswagen, Geely, Chery and Tesla will bevital for sales this year. Potential upside for demand is through share gain in western OE