中国市场寻思启航2025 (第一部分)：2024年中国股市的经验总结(摘要)

值此新年伊始之际，我们回顾了2024年中国股市的表现，归纳总结了对投资者布局2025年中国股市有着借鉴意义的十点经验。 中国股市的连跌走势未曾超过三年 1.虽然政策救市为市场构筑了底部... 2....但财政政策的落实到位对于推动2025年股市上涨不可或缺 3.日本“失去的十年”期间股市走势对于当下中国股市有着参考价值 4.勿与人民银行和股市国家队唱对台戏 5.通缩不利于股市回报 6.中国股市可能是海外对冲基金的“短线交投标的”，但对于国内投资者来说已经7.变得更具投资价值 ETF迅猛崛起 8.上市公司股东回报达到了人民币3万亿元 9.中国股市已经向国内及海外投资者证明了其投资价值 10.*全文翻译随后提供刘劲津, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 慕天辉, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 付思, Ph.D. +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 王主丰, CFA +852-2978-2446 | kevin.wang@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司中国市场寻思 启航2025 (第一部分)： 2024年中国股市的经验总结 (摘要)2025年1月6日 | 2:42AM HKT 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 1. Bad streaks never go beyond 3 years for Chinese equities China A and H shares returned 15% and 16% in 2024, ending the 3-year losing nstreak during which MSCI China and CSI300 lost 59% and 43% from their respective highs in early 2021 to the lows in late 2023. This is reminiscent of the 58% drawdown between 2000 and 2002, followed by an 80% recovery in 2003. The gains were predominantly led by multiple re-rating where index 12m forward P/E nexpanded from 8.8x at the start of 2024 to 10x at the end of the year, while index forward EPS was slightly higher by 4.1% for the year, after taking into account the time-rolling effects of expected earnings growth, but the downgrade to consensus earnings during the year. Sectorally, Info Tech, Financials, and Communication Services performed the best nwhile Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care lagged. Stylistically, Value and Dividend gained the most, contrasting the underperformance by Growth and ROE. These divides underscore the abundance of sector and thematic alpha beneath the headline index. 图表 1: China broke the 3-year losing streak in 2024 图表 2: The gains in 2024 were led mainly by multiple recovery -80-60-40-20020406080100199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024MSCI ChinaMSCI China vs. ACWIMSCI China vs. MSCI AC World Relative Annual USD Return (%, Actual)2024 PerformanceMSCI China: 16.3%Relative: 0.5%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2015201620172018201920202021202220232024Forward EPS ChgForward P/E ChgFX ImpactPrice Return (USD)MSCI China Performance Breakdown 资料来源：FactSet, MSCI, 高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：FactSet, MSCI, 高盛全球投资研究部 图表 3: Significant return disparities along key sector and stylistic vectors in 2024 -20%-10%0%10%20%ROE (High vs Low)Growth (High vs Low)Balance Sheet (Strong vs Weak)Momentum (High vs Low)GARP (High vs Low)Dividend Growth (High vs Low)EPS Revision (High vs Low)Dividend (High vs Low)Value (Cheap vs Expensive)2024 China Style Performance (%)-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Info TechFinancialsComm SvcsIndustrialsUtilitiesEnergyCons DiscMaterialsCons StapReal EstateHealth Care2024 MSCI China Sector Performance (LOC, %) 资料来源：FactSet, MSCI, 高盛全球投资研究部2025年1月6日 2Goldman Sachs中国市场寻思 2. The policy put has put a floor on the marke