麦肯锡-从银行业的技术中释放价值：投资者视角（英）

Financial Services PracticeUnlocking value from technology in banking: An investor lensInvestors, boards, and management teams are looking for banks to demonstrate differential value from technology. Our research provides a framework to link technology investments to value creation.October 2024© Getty Imagesby Aamer Baig, Vik Sohoni, and Xavier Lhuerwith Zane WilliamsOver the past few years, global technology spending in banking has been increasing 9 percent a year, on average, outpacing revenue growth of 4 percent. In 2023, this spending totaled $650 billion,1 which is roughly the GDP of Belgium or Sweden. Despite this significant spending, it hasn’t been easy to quantify the net benefits. Moreover, the banking sector has experienced the following challenges: — Declining productivity. Labor statistics suggest that since 2010, productivity at US banks has been falling 0.3 percent a year, on average, even as most other sectors have experienced productivity gains. Furthermore, the correlation between banks’ revenues and their number of full-time employees is very high, regardless of the institution’s size, suggesting that the industry hasn’t been able to deliver scale economies on technology spending (Exhibit 1).1 2024 Enterprise IT Spending Forecast for Banking and Investment Services, Gartner, 2023. — Unclear competitive differentiation. If a bank spends more on technology than its peers do, it doesn’t necessarily lead to a competitive advantage. For example, a large bank and a small bank can both have a mobile app with a 4.9 app store rating, even if the small bank’s technology spending is a tiny fraction of the big bank’s. Banks of all sizes spend around 10 percent of their revenues on technology, and a robust ecosystem of vendors ensures that new developments in technology are quickly commoditized, copied, and distributed, minimizing first-mover advantages. — Increasing cost of complexity. Growing demands on technology due to regulatory compliance, adoption of AI, and a wave of legacy-system renewals will likely require the industry to continue increasing technology spending. But standard ROI calculations often fail to Exhibit 1 Despite tech spending, productivity at US banks has been falling and economies of scale have been elusive.Despite tech spending, productivity at US banks has been falling and economies of scale have been elusive.McKinsey & CompanyCorrelation between revenues andnumber of employees at US banks, 2023US labor productivity by sector, 2010–22,1 index (2010 = 100)15010050050100150200250 300Revenues,$ billionFull-time employees, thousandsR² = 0.93991Three-year moving averages are used for professional, scientifc, and technical services and commercial banking.²Includes subsectors such as legal services, accounting, consulting services, computer systems design, and scientifc research.Source: S&P Capital IQ; US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of September 2024902010202295100105110115120125CAGR, %1.91.2–0.3Professional, scie