英文【高盛】德国商业银行（CBKG）：德国商业银行股份公司（CBKG）2025年第一季度业绩公布后更新估值

Key Data __________________________________ GS Forecast ________________________________ GS Factor Profile ____________________________ Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.Market cap: €29.1bn / $32.3bn3m ADTV: €159.7mn / $174.4mnGermanyEurope BanksTang. equity/tang. assets (%): 5.0M&A Rank: 312/2412/25E12/26E12/27ENet inc. (€ mn)2,488.12,698.03,034.93,656.3Tang. BVPS (€)24.5026.0427.9030.15EPS (€) New2.082.402.843.62PS (€) Old2.082.262.773.56DPS (€)0.651.001.502.00GS ROT (%)8.99.510.512.5P/ (X)6.710.89.17.1Dividend yield (%)4.73.95.87.7T1 rati (%)15.114.514.414.33/256/25E9/25E12/25EPS (€)0.730.580.550.53CBKG.DE relative to Europe CoverageCBKG.DE relative to Europe BanksGrowthFinancial ReturnsMultipleIntegratedPercentile20th0th60th80th100th We update our estimates for Commerzbank following Q1’25 results, which beat company consensus net profit estimates, driven by stronger revenues and lower-than-expected credit costs, more than offsetting slightly higher-than-expected opex. Looking ahead, we increase our NII forecasts by 1% p.a. over 2025E-27E, taking into account the latest market interest rate expectations and a greater replicating portfolio contribution, driving our EPS forecasts up 6% in 2025E (also supported by the mechanical uplift to FY25E earnings estimates from the Q1 beat) and 2% in 2026E/2027E. In terms of key takeaways from Q1 results, we highlight the following: NII: With Q1 results, Commerzbank adjusted its 2025 NII 1.guidance from a range of ~€7.7bn to ~€7.9bn previously (assuming ECB rates for 2025 averaging between 2.15% – 2.35%) to ~€7.8bn now (assuming 2025 average rate of 2.15%), with a c.€100mn stronger result at mBank now expected compared with guidance given in February. This guidance additionally includes a ~€200mn higher contribution from the replicating portfolio (although largely neutral for NII overall, given this relates to balances moved from ECB rate sensitive positions). While longer-term NII guidance remains unchanged, we see scope for Commerzbank to outperform their NII target both this year (~€7.8bn guidance for 2025, GSe €8.0bn) and through to 2028 (€8.9bn guidance, GSe €9.3bn), given i) benign deposit beta trends (with deposit beta trending down sequentially in 1Q25, vs. guidance for an increase for FY25 overall), ii) support from a steeper curve on the replicating portfolio, and iii) improved performance at mBank. Furthermore, we note that Commerzbank’s multi-year loan growth targets were set in February (+5% CAGR at the Group level, led by Corporate Clients with an 8% target CAGR through to 2028), CBKG.DE12m Pri e Target: €27.30Pri e: €25.81Upside: 5.8%Commerzbank AG (CBKG.DE) Updating estimates post Q1’2513 May 2025 | 8:51PM BST Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Inv