国际清算银行-中国的银行及其EMDE借款人：在地缘经济碎片化的时代，他们的关系是否发生了变化？（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1213 Chinese Banks and their EMDE Borrowers: Have Their Relationships Changed in Times of Geoeconomic Fragmentation by Catherine Casanova, Eugenio Cerutti, and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan Monetary and Economic Department September 2024 JEL classification: F34, F36, F65, G21 Keywords: Cross-border lending, Chinese banks, Trade, FDI, Borrower indebtedness, Pandemic, Sanctions, Geoeconomic fragmentation BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) 1 Chinese Banks and their EMDE Borrowers: Have Their Relationships Changed in Times of Geoeconomic Fragmentation? by Catherine Casanova, Eugenio Cerutti, and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan1 September 2024 Abstract While Chinese banks have become the top cross-border lender to EMDEs, their expansion has slowed recently, both in terms of volume and market share. Also, the strong correlation of China’s bilateral trade and its banks’ cross-border lending has weakened, while during 2020-22 lending became more positively correlated with FDI. In our paper, we analyse these patterns and we explore the role of borrower risk variables and foreign policies. Our findings show that, although the shifting correlation from trade to FDI is a general EMDE phenomenon, China’s Belt and Road Initiative reinforces it. By contrast, borrowers that potentially benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation do not display stronger FDI-lending relationships. We also find that Chinese banks exhibit different levels of risk tolerance relative to other bank nationalities as borrower country risk variables are positively correlated with Chinese banks’ market shares, but not with their amounts of cross-border lending. JEL Classification Numbers: F34, F36, F65, G21 Keywords: Cross-border lending, Chinese banks, Trade, FDI, Borrower indebtedness, Pandemic, Sanctions, Geoeconomic fragmentation 1 Cerutti is at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Casanova at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Pradhan are at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). We thank Katharina Bergant, Yingyuan Chen, Bryan Hardy, Ken Kang, Nir Klein, Goetz von Peter, Dmitry Plotnikov, Christoph Trebesch, as well as the seminar participants at the IMF Macrofinancial Seminar, ECB and Bank of Italy 2024 China Expert Workshop, the Kiel-Göttingen-CEPR Workshop on China, and BIS and SNB internal seminars. The views expressed in this article are those