跨国公司如何在中国当前经济环境下取得成功？

The China Competition Readiness Index helps multinational companies readjust their business models in ChinaIs China still the most important growth engine of the global economy, as it has been since the early 2000s, following a series of economic reforms and its accession to the WTO in 2001? Or is it a falling star – just one of many options for multinationals looking for sales opportunities, suppliers, and production locations? What consequences does the answer to this question have for the success of your business in China? At the end of last year, headlines in the international press cast doubt on China's future growth prospects and, consequently, on the rationale behind many multinational companies' investments in the country. The Wall Street Journal posed the question, "China's 40-year boom is over. What comes next?" CNN reported, "China's economy is in trouble. Here's what's gone wrong," while the Financial Times queried, "How much worse can China's economic slowdown get?" at the beginning of this year.JULY 2024Business success in the new ChinaAUTHORDENIS DEPOUXSenior Partner, Global Managing DirectorDAVID BORNSenior ManagerThe answer to these questions requires companies to understand the difference between the "old China story" and the "new China story." Only if you have a clear view of both the structural reasons for China's boom between 1990 and 2008 – the old China story – and the current growth numbers – the new China story – will you be able to develop the right strategy for your operations in China. For most multinational companies, China remains existential, as an outlet as well as a key block of global supply chains.The old China story and the new China storyThe old China story with extraordinary GDP growth rates of 14.2 % both in 1992 and 2007 is over. This success story was driven by low labor costs, lax environmental regulation, high capital productivity, massive infrastructure investment, and limited total factor productivity. Since 2010, China's GDP growth has been on a path of normalization. This trend continued even through the erratic periods of the pandemic and can be viewed as the typical development trajectory for a more mature economy.However, if we compare China's GDP growth in 2023 (5.2 %) with that of the euro area (0.4 %), the US (2.5 %), and the world economy (3.2 %), China has demonstrated solid growth. The IMF expects this robust growth rate to continue over the next two years, forecasting a GDP growth rate of 4.6 % for 2024, and 4.1 % for 2025. These are macroeconomic prospects the US and the euro area can only dream of. Nevertheless, China is now markedly lagging behind the growth of other Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, India, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Source National Bureau of Statistics; Roland BergerGrowth rateGDPEconomic pressure and uncertainty: Through Q1-Q4 2023, China's economic recovery remained soft (Q1: 4.5 %; Q2: 6.3 %; Q3: 4.9 %; Q4: 5.2 %)· Exports were not helping (-5.3 %)· D