美联储-通货膨胀加速器（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)The Inflation AcceleratorAndres Blanco, Corina Boar, Callum Jones, Virgiliu Midrigan2024-078Please cite this paper as:Blanco, Andres, Corina Boar, Callum Jones, and Virgiliu Midrigan (2024). “The InflationAccelerator,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-078. Washington: Board ofGovernors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.078.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.The Inflation Accelerator*Andres Blanco„Corina Boar…Callum Jones§Virgiliu Midrigan¶June 2024AbstractWe develop a tractable sticky price model in which the fraction of price changesevolves endogenously over time and, consistent with the evidence, increases with infla-tion. Because we assume that firms sell multiple products and choose how many, butnot which, prices to adjust in any given period, our model admits exact aggregationand reduces to a one-equation extension of the Calvo model. This additional equationdetermines the fraction of price changes. The model features a powerful inflation ac-celerator – a feedback loop between inflation and the fraction of price changes – whichsignificantly increases the slope of the Phillips curve during periods of high inflation.Applied to the U.S. time series, our model predicts that the slope of the Phillips curveranges from 0.02 in the 1990s to 0.12 in the 1970s and 1980s.Keywords: Phillips curve, inflation, price rigidities.*We thank Mark Gertler for useful feedback, Hugh Montag and Daniel Villar for sharing the data on thefrequency of price changes, and Suk Joon Kim for excellent research assistance. The views expressed arethose of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal ReserveBoard.„Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, julioablanco84@gmail.com.…New York University and NBER, corina.boar@nyu.edu.§Federal Reserve Board, callum.j.jones@frb.gov.¶New York University and NBER, virgiliu.midrigan@nyu.edu.1IntroductionThe recent rise in inflation in many economies has spurred considerable interest in furtherunderstanding the dynamics of prices. Identifying the causes of high inflation hinges criticallyon the shape of the Phillips curve. Our goal in this paper is to measure how the slope ofthe Phillips curve fluctuates in the U.S. macroeconomic time series. Since a key determinantof this slope is the fraction of price changes, we use a model that reproduces the widelydocumented eviden