吉利与比亚迪之战的关键：“去年轻化”（英）

Insights on Geely Auto (2024)Yiche Research InstituteThe Key to Geely’s Battle with BYD:Ditch “Go Young” AuthorsDirector/Chief Analystzhoulijun1@yiche.comLijun ZhouIndustry Analystgaoying1@yiche.comYing GaoIndustry Analystshibenya@yiche.comBenya ShiVisual Designerzhangqiang9@yiche.comQiang ZhangInternYubo MaoAs of the end of July 2024, Geely Auto’s product portfolioremained centered and over reliant on compact ICEVs (includingenergy saving vehicles), a segment that has been shrinkingFrom 2014 to 2018, Geely launched a slew of compact ICEVs such as the New Emgrand, Emgrand GS, Emgrand L, Boyue and Vision SUV. These models based on Geely’s product 3.0 era took China’s car market by storm thanks to their superb styling, quality and bang for the buck, effectively attracting young car buyers especially the post-85s generation which had a huge population, flocked to the car market and were sensitive to pricing, helping to boost Geely’s annual vehicle vehicle sales from just over 400,000 units to more than 1.5 million units. Based on these models specifically catered to young buyers, Geely quickly became a new force in China’s car market and a new leading Chinese car brand. But starting from 2018, as the post-90s with a much smaller population became the new dominant buying force in the youth car market, the share of compact cars fell from nearly 60% then to 47.54% in 2023. Carmakers that primarily sold compact models experienced a sharp fall in sales during this period. Though Geely was able to improve its car making prowess through the absorption of Volvo technology and maintained annual sales of around 1 million vehicles in China, its“go young”model portfolio lost steam; Bogged down with this scenario while trying to maintain annual sales of 1 million vehicles and profitability, Geely had to adopt a more conservative approach by delaying the roll out of some more adventurous and high-cost tactics, such as having to give up its 2020 NEV strategic goal. At the end of 2015, Geely announced a “Blue Geely Action Plan” aiming to achieve the goal of having customers be able to purchase PHEVs at the cost of traditional ICEVs, and NEVs accounting for more than 90% of sales (65% PHEVs+HEVs and 35% BEVs). From 2021 to the first half of 2024, several major initiatives taken by BYD on NEVs including ending production of ICEVs, pricing NEVs at about the same as ICEVs and launching NEVs cheaper than comparable ICEVs were exactly what Geely had intended to do with the “Blue Geely Action Plan;”The huge customer base that Geely has accumulated from 2014 to 2018 will likely flock to the market again in and around 2021 to trade-in their vehicles for new ones or purchase additional vehicles. But as of the end of July 2024, Geely’s product portfolio remained centered on compact ICEVs (including energy-saving vehicles) catered to young buyers, and lacked ideal models catered to customers making trade-ins and additional purchases. Geely Auto Product Portfolio(as of end of J