彼得森经济研究所-撤销中国永久正常贸易关系（PNTR）地位的经济影响（英）

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW | Washington, DC 20036-1903 USA | +1.202.328.9000 | www.piie.comPOLICY BRIEFMegan Hogan was a research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics until August 2024. She joined the Institute as a research analyst in August 2021 and was the Eranda Rothschild Foundation Junior Fellow during 2022–23. Warwick J. McKibbin, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is Distinguished Professor of Economics and Public Policy and director of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University. Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, has been associated with the Institute since 1985. From 2009 through 2012, he served as the Institute’s deputy director. He is also a senior fellow at the East-West Center.24-9 Economic implications of revoking China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) statusMegan Hogan, Warwick McKibbin, and Marcus NolandSeptember 2024Authors’ Note: We thank Jing Yan, Julieta Contreras, Roshen Fernando, and Geoffrey Shuetrim for technical support; Gary Hufbauer, Maurice Obstfeld, Adam Posen, and Alan Wolff for helpful comments; and Andrew Stoeckel for insightful discussions.In 2000, the United States granted China permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status (formerly known as most favored nation status) in connection to China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). China had originally been subject to the onerous Column 2 (Smoot-Hawley) tariff schedule, but they had been waived since 1980. The granting of PNTR and the end of the annual waiver renewal process reduced the uncertainty associated with China’s trade status and led to significant expansions of foreign direct investment into China and international trade (Handley and Limao 2017). Since China joined the WTO in 2001, Chinese exports to the United States have increased by more than 300 percent, nearly double the rate for imports from other sources—despite the recent ongoing bilateral trade war. Top categories of US imports from China include machinery and electrical machinery, furniture, textiles, and various light manufactures. This import growth led to considerable displacement—including losses of jobs, factories, and output—in US sectors competing with Chinese imports (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013).1 That dislocation, together with other social changes and concerns about China’s trade practices, generated a political backlash in the United States (Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Majlesi 2020; Noland 2020) and in recent years fueled interest in revoking China’s PNTR status. In 2023, Republicans in the US House and Senate introduced a bill, the “China Trade Relations Act of 2023,” but it died in committee. In 2024, a similar bill was introduced in the House. Also in 2024, 1 US exports to China also increased dramatically during this