韩国央行-货币政策报告执行摘要（2024年9月）（英）

iExecutive SummaryExecutive Summary[Recent Economic and Financial Developments] Looking at economic and financial developments at home and abroad between February and August 2024 and at the outlooks for these developments, the global economy is expected to continue its modest growth, affected by the sustained slowing trend of inflation and the continued easing of monetary policy stances in major countries. However, uncertainties regarding their economic trends have increased somewhat.As for global financial markets, price variables have fluctuated significantly, influenced mainly by a shift in expectations for major countries’monetary policy stances and by risk-off sentiment. U.S. Treasury bond yields and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, but fell significantly as expectations for a rate cut by the U.S. Fed strengthened. After a period of significant increase, global stock prices showed a sharp swing entering August 2024 as risk-off sentiment substantially strengthened and then returned due to concerns about a U.S. economic slowdown and the unwinding of the yen carry trade.The global economy and financial markets will be influenced by disinflation and by monetary policies in major economies, as well as by developments in risks surrounding the Middle East and by the political situations in key countries. The domestic economy has continued with its divergence between domestic demand and exports, as exports have continued to grow vigorously while domestic demand has recovered at a slower pace than Global economic growth outlook1)(YoY, %)202320242025eYearH1H2eYeareH1H2YearGlobal economy3.23.23.13.13.13.23.2 U.S.2.53.01.92.41.61.91.8 Euro area0.40.41.10.81.51.61.5 China5.25.04.74.84.44.54.4 Japan1.7-0.91.50.41.80.41.1Note: 1) Figures are the forecast as of August 2024. Sources: Bank of Korea, Statistics bureaus of individual countries, Bloomberg. U.S. interest rates, global stock price index and dollar index012345809010011012013021.121.722.122.723.123.724.124.7MSCI Global Markets Index (left)DXY Index (left)U.S. Treasury Note (10-year) yield (right)(%)771)77Note: 1) January 1, 2021 = 100.Source: Bloomberg.Real GDP growth outlook1)2)012345678-4-3-2-10123421.IIII22.IIII23.IIII24.IIII25.IQoQ (left)YoY (right)(%)(%)Notes: 1) Figures in the shaded area represent forecasts as of August 2024. 2) Figures for 2023 and 2024 are based on preliminary figures.Source: Bank of Korea.iiexpected. GDP growth increased significantly in the first quarter, with exports maintaining strong growth and domestic demand easing its sluggishness somewhat, but then went through corrections in the second quarter due to the lapse of temporary factors. Starting in the third quarter, consumption has been recovering at a slower-than-expected pace while exports have remained strong and facilities investment has shifted to an increase. Meanwhile, the labor market is favorable overall as the unemployment rate remains at a low level, although the increase in the number of persons