世界银行-维持贫困收益：指导社会登记扩展的脆弱性地图（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10890Sustaining Poverty GainsA Vulnerability Map to Guide the Expansion of Social RegistriesOscar Barriga-CabanillasThomas BossuroyPaul Andres Corral RodasCarlos Rodríguez-CastelánEmmanuel Skoufias Poverty and Equity Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10890Poverty maps are a useful tool for targeting social programs on areas with high concentrations of poverty. However, a static focus on poverty ignores its temporal dimension. Thus, current nonpoor households still face substantial welfare volatility and are at risk of becoming poor in the face of shocks. This paper combines the methods of poverty mapping and vulnerability estimation to create highly disag-gregated vulnerability maps. The maps include predictions of the share of chronically poor households (poverty-in-duced vulnerability)—the focus of traditional poverty maps—and the share of households showing a significant probability of falling into poverty (risk-induced vulnerabil-ity). As an application of the method, the paper estimates a vulnerability map for Senegal that provides quotas for the expansion of the social registry. Accounting for the poor and the population at risk of poverty implies, in practice, the expansion of coverage into urban and peri-urban areas that tend to experience lower poverty rates. The inclusion of nonpoor households also serves as a first step toward supporting a dynamic social registry.This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at obarriga@worldbank.org. Sustaining Poverty Gains: A Vulnerability Map to Guide the Expansion of Social RegistriesaOscar Barriga-Cabanillasb Thomas Bossuroyc Paul Andres Corral Rodasc Carlos Rodríguez-Castelánd Emmanuel Skoufiase Keywords: Poverty, Vulnerability, Poverty maps, Targeting, Social protection. JEL codes: I32, F63 C15, R11 a The author