中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析

201906中国石油消费总量控制的 健康效应分析ANALYSIS ON THE HEALTH BENEFIT FROM AN OIL CAP IN CHINA油控研究项目真实成本课题组执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT本课题属于中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究项目（下文简称‘油控研究项目’）子课题之一。中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究项目( 油控研究项目 )中国是世界第二大石油消费国和第一大石油进口国。石油是中国社会经济发展的重要动力，但石油的生产和消费对生态环境造成了严重破坏；同时，石油对外依存度上升也威胁着中国的能源供应安全。为应对气候变化和减少环境污染，自然资源保护协会（NRDC）和能源基金会中国（EF China）作为协调单位，与国内外政府研究智库、科研院所和行业协会等十余家有影响力的单位合作，于 2018 年 1 月共同启动了“中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究”项目（简称油控研究项目），促进石油资源安全、高效、绿色、低碳的可持续开发和利用，助力中国跨越“石油时代”，早日进入新能源时代，为保障能源安全、节约资源、保护环境和公众健康以及应对气候变化等多重目标做出贡献。自然资源保护协会（NRDC）是一家国际非盈利非政府环保机构，拥有逾 140 万会员及支持者。自 1970 年成立以来，以环境律师、科学家及环保专家为主力的 NRDC 员工们一直为保护自然资源、公共健康及环境而进行不懈努力。NRDC 在美国、中国、加拿大、墨西哥、治理、哥斯达黎加、欧盟、印度等国家及地区开展工作。请登录网站了解更多详情 www.nrdc.cn。系列报告《石油开采利用的水资源外部成本研究》《中国石油真实成本研究》《中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究》3中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析油控研究项目系列报告中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析ANALYSIS ON THE HEALTH BENEFIT FROM AN OIL CAP IN CHINA执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT主要作者潘小川 武子婷 王战油控研究项目真实成本课题组2019 年 06 月油控研究项目系列报告4目录Executive Summary 5专业术语表 7前言 81. 石油相关污染对人群健康的危害 91.1 石油相关大气污染的健康危害1.2 石油相关水污染的健康危害1.3 塑料污染的健康危害2. 石油相关大气污染的健康成本核算 182.1 核算方法2.2 量化分析2.3 不确定性分析3. 结论及展望 323.1 主要结论3.2 政策建议3.3 展望参考文献 365中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析Executive SummaryBackgroundsPetroleum is an indispensable raw material and a basic form of energy in China. It has an important strategic position within the national economy and is closely related to industrial development and daily life. With the advancement of industrialization and the improvement of China’s energy structure, total petroleum consumption continues to rise. The impact of petroleum extraction, refining and consumption on the ecological environment and public health cannot be underestimated. Some previous studies have showed that the extraction, refining and consumption of petroleum could release a large number of harmful pollutants into the atmosphere, freshwater bodies and oceans, endangering the lives and health of the public. However, few studies have comprehensively evaluated the health hazards caused by the petroleum industry chain, and there is a lack of data on economic losses caused by petroleum-related pollution. What are the health impacts and economic losses caused by petroleum-related pollution? This has become a central question that the relevant departments urgently need to address. Based on the above information, this study chose 2015 as the baseline year from which to evaluate the health impacts and economic losses of petroleum-related pollution qualitatively and quantitatively, and to provide scientific reference for formulating the national total petroleum consumption control policy.MethodsIn this study, we summarized the health hazards of petroleum-related air, water and plastic pollution to public health, and quantitatively evaluated the health costs of petroleum-related air pollution.In the first part, we gathered the extensive literature on petroleum-related air pollution, water pollution and plastic pollution, with a focus on the health impacts of petroleum-related pollution. We then conducted a literature review to summarize the