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Beijing UBOX Online Technology (2429 HK) Equity Research·Company Research·Retail 1 / 18 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 Riding the wave of unmanned retail, the leader of vending machines sets sail Buy (Initiation) Forecast & Valuation 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E Revenue (RMB mn) 2,519.31 2,761.85 4,090.24 4,994.10 Growth (YoY %) -5.88 9.63 48.10 22.10 Net profit (RMB mn) -284.53 -150.82 26.15 184.19 Growth (YoY %) -53.80 46.99 117.33 604.47 EPS (RMB) -0.36 -0.19 0.03 0.24 P/E (X) -36.28 -68.44 394.80 56.04 Source: iFinD, Soochow Securities (Hong Kong) Investment Thesis ◼ As a leading operator of vending machines, Beijing UBOX is committed to deepening its presence in the unmanned retail industry in mainland China. As of June 30, 2023, the company's network comprised 61,888 UBOX vending machine locations, spanning 157 cities and 28 provinces in mainland China. Among these, 87.3% were in first-tier, new first-tier, and second-tier cities, while 89.8% were allocated to consumption scenarios such as schools, factories, offices, and public places. Beijing UBOX's revenues for 2020-2022 were RMB19.0/26.8/25.2bn, -30%/+41%/-6% yoy. The significant fluctuations in the company's revenue were mainly caused by the pandemic and changes in consumer demand, with a CAGR of 15% from 2020 to 2022. ◼ The penetration rate of vending machines is rapidly increasing, and the market share of leading companies is likely to grow. According to Sullivan's forecast, with the increase in disposable income, consumption levels, urbanization rate, strengthening of social distancing awareness, and continuous innovation in vending machines, the offline penetration rate of vending machine sites is expected to increase from 8.8% in 2022 to 15.6% in 2027. The retail market size of vending machines in China is projected to increase from RMB289bn in 2022 to RMB739bn in 2027, with a five-year CAGR of 20.7%. Additionally, the concentration of China's unmanned retail industry is currently low. Based on the total commodity turnover in 2022, the market share of the top five participants in mainland China's vending machine industry was 17.0%. Currently, there are thousands of market participants, indicating a relatively dispersed market landscape. Leading companies are likely to achieve growth surpassing the industry through mergers and acquisitions. ◼ Establishing a comprehensive service platform for unmanned retail, Beijing UBOX expands rapidly in high-tier cities. As a core participant in the unmanned retail industry, the company has leveraged its strong capabilities in digitalization and operations to create a platform that provides value to various participants. Meanwhile, with abundant data and advanced technology, Beijing UBOX has achieved efficient business operations and single-machine operations. As of the end of June 2023, the number of machines in first-tier/new first-tier/second-tier cities was 19,611/21,365/13,031 respectively. Looking ahead, w