中国经济评论2024政府工作报告：增长和财政目标符合预期，预计稳增长政策下经济继续温和复苏

宏观经济 | 2024 年 3 月 5 日 本报告由建银国际证券有限公司撰写。分析师证明及其他重要声明请见报告最后一页。 1 2024 年政府工作报告中的增长目标符合我们的预期。5%的增长目标与我们的年度预期一致。周期因素，包括企业基本面修复，外需转暖，消费进一步正常化和财政支持提升的共同支持下，近期经济指标已有所反弹。预计年内经济持续温和复苏，伴以再通胀将有助减少周期就业和债务压力。 报告体现财政支持将持续，有助支持复苏。官方预算赤字定在 GDP 的 3%符合预期，调整预算基金后的有效赤字与去年全年持平，显示预算内财政支持稳定。考虑去年年底特别国债发行的资金使用大多在今年，加上今年新增特别国债等因素，宽口径财政支持力度加大，预计财政取态保持去年四季度以来的温和扩张，有助经济复苏。财政结构上中央对项目支出支持上升，有利缓解地方财政压力。但风险防范的主题意味着大幅刺激的可能性不大。 报告强调产业调整和扩大内需并重，关注产业政策和改革措施。高质量发展和新质生产力是政策重点，发展数字和平台经济、供应链优化、产业创新、绿色转型、扩大开放等政策预计持续，也将带动供给和需求的共同提升。先立后破的要求有助减少转型震荡。扩大内需方面，政府投资小幅扩大但投资效率和回报仍是重点。政府强调提升就业和收入以支持消费。关注对就业关键行业(特别是服务行业)的具体政策。财税，数据，外资准入等方面的改革和具体措施也将影响中期宏观和行业发展。 China’s 2024 growth target met with our expectation. The 5% growth target set by the Chinese government in the Government’s Work Report was exactly in line with our forecast. Supported by cyclical factors including improving corporate fundamentals, recovering foreign demand, the recovery in consumption, and increased fiscal support, economic activity has rebounded lately. We expect the moderate recovery to continue, along with reflation, which will help lift employment and alleviate some debt pressure. Proactive fiscal policy supporting the recovery. The 2024 official on-budget deficit was set at 3% of GDP, in line with expectations. The effective budget deficit after adjusting budgetary funds was similar to last year, consistent with the government’s supportive fiscal stance. Combining the impact of unused special sovereign bonds issued last year and new special sovereign bonds to be issued this year, broad fiscal support promises to be stronger this year. Since 4Q 2023, China’s fiscal stance has been modestly expansionary, supporting the recovery. Furthermore, strong fiscal support by the central government on project financing will help to alleviate local fiscal pressure. A bazooka stimulus is unlikely given concerns over debt risk. The government aims to simultaneously increase domestic demand and adjust the economic structure, with an emphasis on industrial policy. High-quality development and productivity drivers are policy priorities. Development of the digital and platform economies, supply chain optimization and industrial innovation, the green transition, and a bolder opening-up are all measures emphased to improve supply upgrades along with increases in demand. Something like building first before breaking could mitigate the shock of transformation. On demand support, the direct government investment will increase slightly from last year and investment efficiency and returns remain the focus. The government is also emphasizing increasing employment and income to encourage consumption. Employment support policy (especially for service industries) are key to watch. Reforms of several key areas of fiscal policy and taxation are being considered in the Government Work Report, as are cross-border data transfers, and foreign investment in manufacturing and services. Details on these plans have yet to be published. 崔历 (852) 3