芬兰2023年国家报告-英

EN EN EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 24.5.2023 SWD(2023) 626 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 2023 Country Report - Finland Accompanying the document Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2023 National Reform Programme of Finland and delivering a Council opinion on the 2023 Stability Programme of Finland {COM(2023) 626 final} ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT SNAPSHOT 2 The Finnish economy slows down before an expected pick-up in the second half of 2023 Following a swift recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, the Finnish economy entered a technical recession in the second half of 2022. Against the background of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, real GDP growth for the last two quarters of the year was negative, which qualifies as a ‘technical recession’. However, real annual GDP grew by 2.1% in 2022 (see Annex 20). In both 2021 and 2022, growth was supported by domestic demand. Last year, a build-up of inventories also noticeably contributed to growth (see Graph 1.1). The start of 2023 has been marked by rather negative economic sentiment in industry, retail trade and construction. Consumer confidence has also been low. Inflationary pressures, higher interest rates and tighter financing conditions are set to weigh on economic performance in the near term. However, the external environment is projected to improve, and economic activity is expected to pick up in the second half of 2023. Exports have remained relatively resilient after the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. In 2022, the Finnish exports of goods to Russia accounted for 2.6% compared to 5.4% in 2021. According to the Finland Chamber of Commerce (1), in November 2022, only 4% of export companies had business in Russia, compared to 24% in May. A few studies (2) (3) found that larger (1) Chamber of Commerce's export director survey - Suomikauppakamari (2) https://datapilotti.fi/datahuone-sota-ukrainassa-vaikuttanut-venajan-kauppaa-kayneisiin-suomalaisyrityksiin-vain-vahan/ Finnish companies had not been seriously affected by the suspension of their trade relations with Russia. Overall, considerable nominal growth of exports to other EU countries and the US implies that a share of exporting businesses successfully entered or expanded their activities in other markets. At the same time, at the end of 2022, imports from Russia were approximately 80% lower than a year before and mostly comprised nickel. Graph 1.1: Real GDP growth and contributions Source: European Commission Inflation spiked in 2022, reaching its peak in the fourth quarter. Annual Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation stood at a record 7.2% compared to 2.1% in 2021. Significant jumps in gas and electricity prices put annual energy inflation above 30% and were the main driver behind the overall increase in the price level. However, in 2022, inflation remained below that of the euro area level due to the