全球2024展望报告

The global economy has outperformed even our optimistic expectations in 2023.nGDP growth is on track to beat consensus forecasts from a year ago by 1ppglobally and 2pp in the US, while core inflation is down from 6% in 2022 to 3%sequentially across economies that saw a post-covid price surge.More disinflation is in store over the next year. Although the normalization innproduct and labor markets is now well advanced, its full disinflationary effect isstill playing out, and core inflation should fall back to 2-2½% by end-2024.We continue to see only limited recession risk and reaffirm our 15% USnrecession probability. We expect several tailwinds to global growth in 2024,including strong real household income growth, a smaller drag from monetaryand fiscal tightening, a recovery in manufacturing activity, and an increasedwillingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if growth slows.Most major DM central banks are likely finished hiking, but under our baselinenforecast for a strong global economy, rate cuts probably won’t arrive until2024H2. When rates ultimately do settle, we expect central banks to leavepolicy rates above their current estimates of long-run sustainable levels.The Bank of Japan will likely start moving to exit yield curve control in the springnbefore formally exiting and raising rates in 2024H2, assuming inflation remainson track to exceed its 2% target. Near-term growth in China should benefit fromfurther policy stimulus, but China’s multi-year slowdown will likely continue.The market outlook is complicated by compressed risk premia and markets thatnare quite well priced for our central case. We expect returns in rates, credit,equities, and commodities to exceed cash in 2024 under our baseline forecast.Each offers protection against a different tail risk, so a balanced asset mix shouldreplace 2023’s cash focus, with a greater role for duration in portfolios.The transition to a higher interest rate environment has been bumpy, butninvestors now face the prospect of much better forward returns on fixed incomeassets. The big question is whether a return to the pre-GFC rate backdrop is anequilibrium. The answer is more likely to be yes in the US than elsewhere,especially in Europe where sovereign stress might reemerge. Without a clearchallenger to the US growth story, the dollar is likely to remain strong.Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Dominic Wilson +1(212)902-5924 | dominic.wilson@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Vickie Chang +1(212)902-6915 | vickie.chang@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Devesh Kodnani +1(917)343-9216 | devesh.kodnani@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Giovanni Pierdomenico +44(20)7051-6807 | giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.comGoldman Sachs InternationalGlobal Economics Analyst Macro Outlook 2024: The Hard Part Is Over8 November 2023 | 11:01AM ESTInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor i