英文【高盛】尽管宏观存在不确定性，电力需求增长仍在正轨；维持2.5-的复合年增长率

On the back of changes to our macro team’s forecasts, and broader economic/policy uncertainty, we update our power demand outlook and provide sensitivity analyses around overall power demand to GDP growth scenarios. Despite the uncertainty, we leave our US power demand CAGR unchanged at 2.5% in 2023-2030, still reflecting a positive inflection from recent historical levels, but continuing to see risk skewed to the upside, as start to the year power demand data has been tracking in-line with our expectations. Inside, we point to stocks across our regulated utility coverage that we believe are more exposed to changes in power demand given exposure to higher commercial and industrial load, including XEL, WEC and SO. We also note NRG and VST are more exposed to power demand/prices, though we highlight that both have limited near term commodity price exposure. Carly Davenport +1(212)357-1914 | carly.davenport@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Beatriz Abreu, CFA +1(212)357-0455 | beatriz.abreu@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jaskaran Jaiya +1(332)245-7709 | jaskaran.jaiya@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPLAmericas Utilities: Power Power demand growth on track despite macro uncertainty; maintain 2.5% CAGR8 June 2025 | 6:38PM EDT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Key Takeaways Latest on US power demand. Weather normal power demand has trended strongly so far in 2025, above our long-term demand CAGR of 2.5%, as per monthly EIA data. In 1Q25, weather normal demand grew by 2.9% on average, on strong commercial and residential demand. Preliminary real time data showed mixed trends, with April weather-normal demand accelerating to 3.0% and May contracting 0.1% yoy, which we believe are still supportive of our near and long term demand growth expectations. Macro forecast changes. GS economists lowered most of their macro forecasts since our last power demand update in February 2025. Our colleagues now expect lower industrial production from 2025 through 2027, a shift that negatively impacted our industrial power demand assumptions, along with lower expected real GDP growth and higher unemployment rates, which in turn contributed to our lower expected commercial power demand assumption. Positively, housing-related forecasts were relatively unchanged compared to our last update, which contributed to lower changes in our residential power demand expectations when compared to other segments. US power demand outlook. Despite lower macro forecasts, our