英文【高盛】机械、基础设施、可持续技术：在三年供应拐点中增加对机械的配置；评级变化

We reiterate our positive outlook on Machinery and increase our weighting with four rating changes in this report. Machinery supply is inflecting positively for the first time in three years (see our April Supply Tracker inflection and Machinery Supply backtesting reports), new equipment destock is more than halfway complete, margin expectations have been reset embedding tariff headwinds, and valuations appear reasonable on mid-cycle earnings. Prior to April’s Supply Tracker, we had preferred Environmental Services & Construction Materials over Machinery since 1Q2023 due to Machinery oversupply on our supply-focused investment framework. However, the supply picture has now inflected, and we prefer Machinery to Construction Materials, Environmental Services, and Engineering Services. We believe our supply framework for Machinery backtests to drive the stocks because (i) the used market represents 10x the number of units as new, (ii) used inventory changes represent total market shortage/surplus over a year in advance of production adjustments, and (iii) Machinery depreciates at 10% per year, which allows for machinery supply to adjust and disconnect from end demand (i.e. 2010, 2015, 2018, 2021). For our bottom up views on US construction, including our 25 key lead indicators on the demand side, see our US infrastructure landing page. We reiterate our Buy ratings on DE (on the Conviction List), CAT, URI, and HRI, and we now upgrade Cummins (CMI) and Terex (TEX) to Buy from Neutral. We downgrade KBR (KBR) and Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU) to Neutral from Buy. Cummins Inc. (CMI): Upgrade to Buy amid improved supply and structurally higher unit profitability We upgrade CMI to Buy from Neutral as we see (i) structurally higher Power Systems profitability (pricing structure beyond data center), (ii) derisked EPA 2027 expectations, and (iii) US truck demand expectations that have been significantly reduced while used sleeper inventory levels that are now down 30% yoy. CMI is trading at 16x our mid-cycle EPS estimate of $20.50 based on prior cycle performance, and 14x potential mid-cycle if the improved Power Systems margins are sustained longer-term. From an end market standpoint, we acknowledge our call Jerry Revich, CFA +1(212)902-4116 | jerry.revich@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Adam Bubes, CFA +1(212)357-9824 | adam.bubes@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Clay Williams, CFA +1(212)357-4433 | clay.c.williams@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jatin Khanna +1(212)934-2034 | jatin.x.khanna@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Anuj Khandelwal +1(332)245-7710 | anuj.khandelwal@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPLMachinery, Infrastructure, Sustainable Tech Increasing allocation to Machinery amid three year-supply inflection; Rating changes27 May 2025 | 12:05AM EDT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of