英文【高盛】美洲饮料：截至5月17日的NielsenIQ数据显示酒精饮料总销售额连续恶化

Our View - Recent NielsenIQ xAOC+C sales trends for total alcoholic beverages declined -2.3% for the 2-wks ending 5/17/25 (vs -1.7%/-1.9% for 4/12-wks). The data reflects continued pressure on volumes, with trends worsening sequentially, down -3.7% (vs -3.2%/-3.3% for 4/12-wks) against relatively stable pricing growth, up +1.4% for 2-wks (vs +1.5%/+1.5% for 4-/12-wks). We note that Cinco de Mayo is included in the data in this year’s period and the comparable period last year. From a category standpoint, volume declined across most categories, with exception to Spirits. Beer category sales declined in the latest 2-wk period, down -2.0% (vs -1.7%/-1.9% for 4-wks/12-wks), reflecting continued pressure on volumes, down -3.5% for 2-wks (vs -3.1%/-3.5% for 4-wks/12-wks) against +LSD pricing, up +1.4% for 2-wks (vs +1.4%/+1.7% for 4-wks/12-wks). At the brand level, Modelo $ sales in the latest 2-wk period were down -2.0% y/y (vs -1.5%/+0.1% in 4-/12-wks) on volume declines of -4.1% (vs -3.4%/-1.6% in 4-/12-wks) and pricing growth of +2.2% (vs +1.9%/+1.7% in 4-/12-wks). Bud Light $ sales pressures continued, down -9.2% y/y in the latest 2-wks (vs -8.8%/-8.6% in 4-/12-wks) with the brand losing 64bps of $ share y/y to 8.3%. Coors Light & Miller Lite $ sales also declined, down -7.1% and -7.6%, respectively, with $ share contracting, down -35bps/-33bps y/y to 6.7%/5.6%. Promotional spend across most categories remains well below 2019 levels and total US market promotional spend across alc categories was 23.2% in the latest 2-wk period (vs. 22.8%/22.7% in 4-/12-wks). FMB category $ sales declined -3.7% for 2-wks (vs -2.2%/-1.3% for 4-wks/12-wks). Twisted Tea $ sales growth decelerated, down -3.4% for 2-wks (vs -1.7%/+0.2% for 4-wks/12-wks), though its $ share expanded on a y/y basis. Simply Spiked $ sales growth remains under considerable pressure, down -39.6% for 2-wks (vs -38.6%/-39.2% for 4-wks/12-wks). Hard seltzer category $ sales declined, down -7.2% for 2-wks (vs -5.4%/-4.9% for 4-wks/12-wks). Truly $ sales remained pressured, down -17.7% for 2-wks (vs -16.1%/-15.6% for 4-wks/12-wks), with Truly’s overall share contracting on a y/y basis. RTD Cocktails category $ sales growth continued, though moderated, with Spirit-based RTD $ sales up +16.6% for 2-wks (vs +18.7%/+20.2% for 4-wks/12-wks) and Wine-based RTD $ sales were up Bonnie Herzog +1(212)902-0490 | bonnie.herzog@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Farshid Javar +1(917)343-2241 | farshid.javar@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ankit Prasad +1(212)934-6394 | ankit.prasad@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Ethan Huntley +1(617)772-7940 | ethan.huntley@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCAmericas Beverages NielsenIQ data thru 5/17 Total alc bev $ sales sequentially worsen27 May 2025 | 9:15AM EDT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.