英文【高盛】年中欧洲零售展望与策略：将欧洲消费者家庭可支配现金流增长率降至约+2-后，我们关注2025年的四个主题

Richard Edwards +44(20)7051-6016 | richard.edwards@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Ben Williams +44(20)7051-0661 | ben.williams@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Hamish Bogdan +44(20)7552-2214 | hamish.bogdan@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Saimirra Ramanarayanan +1(332)245-7738 | saimirra.ramanarayanan@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPLpromotion mix). Notably, Ahold flag their personalised offer take-up is c.25% vs industry average 2-3%. Buy Ahold, Sainsbury’s, Tesco. E-commerce continues to outperform: for example, nin 1Q25 German online sales are +11.4% yoy (vs in-store apparel sales -4%) and Spanish online sales +10.3% yoy (vs retail sales +2.7%). This has been a positive catalyst for increased marketing investment by retailers in the online channel (e.g. Zalando Market Services reported 1Q25 revenue c.+50% yoy in 1Q25), underpinning continued online growth and supporting Zalando’s margin outlook. Buy Zalando, Next. COGS tailwinds offset US tariff exposure albeit nChina exports to Europe are growing: COGS inputs provide a tailwind to 2H25/2025E GM%, with lower cotton, freight costs and, more recently, a weaker USD offering GM% upside for those with negligible US tariff exposure. However, Chinese export data for clothing and footwear shows a recent divergence since “Liberation Day” in April, with April Chinese exports to the US -19.7% yoy, and Germany/France +39.2%/+28.7%. Buy Next, M&S. 27 May 2025 | 5:38AM BSTEurope Retail Mid-Year European Retail Outlook & Strategy: Having lowered European consumer HAC to c.+2%, we focus on four themes for 2025 HAC update: Our 2025 HAC forecasts are now Germany +2.3%, UK +1.7%, and France +1.2%, largely reflecting differences in wage inflation and, in all cases, assuming the recent material savings rate increases stabilise across the year. In this context, we look at 4 themes for the second half of 2025: Asda price skirmish: after the Asda price Rollback nprogramme and price matching activity in 1Q (Asda price index to Tesco now 100, from 101.5 in 2024), relative UK food pricing has stabilised, with UK food inflation at c.+3.7%, consistent with the upper end of Tesco’s FY26 EBIT guidance. Buy M&S, Sainsbury, Tesco. Loyalty Schemes and personalisation are a key ndifferentiator: driving better revenue outcomes and additional profit streams. Tesco’s Club Card and Sainsbury’s Nectar Card are good examples, with 85%-90% participation and heavy utilisation (c.65% Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.