美股-支付与IT服务业-万事达与Visa：2018年支付网络深度研究

www.jpmorganmarkets.comNorth America Equity Research15 March 2019Mastercard & VisaMA, MA USOverweightPrice: $229.51 (14 Mar)Price Target: $246.00 (Dec 19)Payment Network Tale of the Tape (2018 Deep Dive)V, V USOverweightPrice: $154.20 (14 Mar)Price Target: $166.00 (Dec 19)Payments, Processors & IT ServicesTien-tsin Huang, CFA AC(1-212) 622-6632tien-tsin.huang@jpmorgan.comBloomberg JPMA HUANG <GO>Reginald L. Smith, CFA(1-212) 622-6743reginald.l.smith@jpmorgan.comConnor Allen(1-212) 622-1303connor.allen@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSee page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.In this report, we look back to 2018 and compare key financial, operating and return metrics to better understand performance differences between Mastercardand Visa. Our analysis, this year, is complicated by two factors, (1) new accounting standards related to the timing and recognition of certain revenue and incentives, which boosted MA’s net revenue and EPS growth by four and five percent, respectively, in ’18, and (2) MA’s ongoing Maestro card conversion effort, which comparatively boosts reported card and volume growth metrics in certain regions. Where possible, we’ve tried to adjust for and/or highlight these factors. Bottom line, Mastercard outgrew Visa on most key metrics in ’18, but the growth discrepancy is not as dramatic as headline figures would suggest.  Visa still the clear scale leader. Visa has greater scale, generating nearly twice as much total volume as Mastercard, 42% more revenue and a thirteen point operating margin premium, primarily due to better personnel and advertising expense leverage. Visa has 70% more cards outstanding and roughly two-thirds relative market share (based on purchase volume) in all geographies.  Volume and yield. On a reported basis, Visa is more U.S. centric than Mastercard based on volume (49%/35%) and revenues (45%/33%). Visa saw slightly faster U.S. volume growth, while Mastercard saw faster international growth, helped by Maestro card conversions in Europe and LATAM, a trend we see continuing for the foreseeable future. MA and V’s rebate and incentive growth continues to outpace volume growth. Encouragingly, MA and Visa were able to increase net revenue yields by 0.6bps (adjusting for accounting changes)and 0.9bps, respectively, in '18, despite the growth in rebates and incentives.  Cross-border. Mastercard’s cross border volume increased 18% FXN in CY18 versus Visa at 9%. Mastercard has historically grown at a slight premium to Visa, but the growth disparity began widening in 3Q17, coinciding with a large Maestro card conversion (Maestro cards and volume are not includ