全球投资策略-全球数据观察：撼动大麦的风

Global Economic Research24 June 2022J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comContentsFrance: Macron only has limited options for domestic policy12UK vs. Scandies: Higher rates, varied sensitivity15Africa : Food price shocks and the threat to food security18 Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P. Morgan Economics9 J.P. Morgan Market Watch10 Data WatchesUnited States22Euro area29Japan34Canada38Mexico40Brazil43Argentina45Andeans47United Kingdom49Emerging Europe52South Africa56Australia and New Zealand59China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan61Korea64ASEAN66India70 Regional Data Calendars72 Economic and Policy ResearchBruce Kasman(1-212) 834-5515bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJoseph Lupton(1-212) 834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comMichael S Hanson(1-212) 622-8603michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NAGlobal Data Watch•June surveys point to momentum slide in US and Europe•Asia looks to be lifting as COVID drags fade•Central banks on the march; close to 100bp of DM hikes expected in 3Q•Next week: Asia mfg PMIs up, global down; EMU HICP up 0.7%m/m The wind that shakes the barleyWhile flagging downside risk to our 2H22 global growth outlook for some time, thus far we have made only modest revisions to our forecast for a return to above-trend global growth. Much of this anticipated acceleration comes from a sharp reopening rebound in China that has already begun. But our fore-cast elsewhere—to a solidly above-potential 2.2%ar in 2H22—is under greater threat. Indeed, recent developments have shifted the focus of the debate in the US and Western Europe to the risk of recession. As has been the case preceding prior downturns, both regions have been hit by large adverse supply shocks that have pushed 1H22 CPI gains above 8%ar. Thus far, households have cushioned the blow to their purchasing power by drawing down their savings: we estimate DM real consumption grew 2%ar in 1H22. But consumer confidence is now sliding, with this week’s Euro area and UK June readings both approaching 40-year lows (Figure 1). Upcoming June readings should also show that infla-tion pressure remains intense at midyear. Next week we expect a 0.7% m/m gain in the Euro area followed by a forecasted 1% m/m increase in the US (July 13). Both regions face specific energy sector threats. Limited refinery capacity could push US retail gasoline prices above $5/gallon next quarter while cur-tailed Russian gas supply is pushing European wholesale natural gas prices sharply higher. While German storage levels have already increased to 58% and the use of coal is picking up, industrial users will likely be forced to ration gas later this year if Russian supply is not available. Easing supply pressures are apparent in notable declines in industrial metal and agricultural commodity prices in recent weeks as well as shortening delivery times in available June business surveys. However, this relief is of limited comfort as i