美股投资策略-消费者调查：通货膨胀对未来购买意向的影响

North America Equity Research20 June 2022 US Beverages, Household & Personal CareConsumer Survey: Inflationary Impacts to Purchase Intentions Looking AheadBeverage, Household & Personal Care ProductsAndrea Teixeira, CFA AC(1-212) 622-6735andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.comBloomberg JPMA TEIXEIRA <GO>Drew Levine, CFA(1-212) 622-0374drew.levine@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSee page 21 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.www.jpmorganmarkets.comWe conducted a new proprietary U.S. consumer survey in mid-June in order to better understand up-to-date consumer purchasing behaviors broadly across sectors in the inflationary environment, where (and when) consumers would look to cut back, and how consumer shopping behaviors have changed and are likely to change across Beverage, Household & Personal Care categories given pressures on consumer wallets. In this survey we collected responses from over 500 U.S. consumers who are the primary or one of the primary household shoppers. At a high level, survey responses support recent commentary from WMT/TGT (both covered by Chris Horvers) that consumables consumption remains resilient (link) and that consumers still prefer branded products in Beverages/HPC, although private label is beginning to recover some share following pandemic-era share gains in branded (link). Looking ahead, within Beverages and HPC, if the inflationary pressures continue at the consumer level, which all indications are that it will, the survey responses point to relatively more risk to the more discretionary segments within our sectors, particularly alcoholic beverages and beauty (although the higher income respondents have indicated less propensity to reduce purchases vs. low income) and relatively more safety within the plain-vanilla HPC (in particular personal care and home care, as most consumers indicated they will not pull back spending). Non-alcoholic beverages should also hold up well (consumers not noticing higher prices as much and don’t plan to cut back much) and continue to see strong consumption trends in POS data.  For HPC & Beauty Stocks: While the responses would seem to support plain-vanilla HPC across the board, we continue to see more relative risk of trade down for CLX, CHD and KMB (all UW-rated) given incremental pricing actions and higher private label penetration in the categories these companies compete in, and risk to the more discretionary areas where OW-rated NWL competes, while there were more constructive responses in categories where PG (N-rated), and CL (N-rated) play. Across all income levels, responses showed higher than average vs. other categories propensity to