新兴市场投资策略-新兴市场灯塔：面对新兴市场风格因素；新兴市场股票策略因素投资

Global Markets Strategy22 June 2022 EM Lighthouse: Face the EM Style Factors EM Equity Strategy Factor InvestingEquity Macro Research Emerging Market Equity StrategyPedro Martins Junior, CFA AC(55-11) 4950-4121pedro.x.martins@jpmchase.comBloomberg JPMA MARTINS <GO>Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.Jainik Mody, CFA(44 20) 3493-0443jainik.mody@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcAnindita Gandhi(91-22) 6157-3248anindita.gandhi@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedMadhav Maheshwari(91-22) 6157-4136madhav.maheshwari@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedGlobal Quantitative StrategyDubravko Lakos-Bujas(1-212) 622-3601dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCRobert Smith, PhD(61-2) 9003-8808robert.z.smith@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia LimitedEM Asia Equity StrategyWendy Liu(852) 2800-1087wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) LimitedCEEMEA Equity StrategyDavid Aserkoff, CFA(44-20) 7134-5887david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcLatAm Equity StrategyEmy Shayo Cherman(55-11) 4950-6684emy.shayo@jpmorgan.comBanco J.P. Morgan S.A.See page 36 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.www.jpmorganmarkets.comIn this report, we introduce J.P. Morgan factor scores to help investors deploy style investing strategies and trades in Emerging Markets. The output of the stock screens are lists of liquid and investable stocks in our EM coverage universe, filtered using J.P. Morgan factor scores developed by our Quant Strategy team and views from our bottom-up fundamental analysts. We also analyze the historical behavior of the factors to see trends in EM style portfolios. Style Strategy: Barbell of Value and Growth. We present a stock list for a primary preference for Value along with a consideration for Growth stocks (Table 2). (1) Value (Major Exposure) – We think it can continue to outperform, until we see the current high commodity price cycle come to an end. The key boosters for Value into 2H22 would be lower broad USD and lower EMBIG spreads. (2) Growth (Minor Exposure) – We believe there are good opportunities in the space: stocks over-punished and fundamentals strongly aligned with long-term growth opportunities. (3) Low Vol (Funding) –We push back on a base-case assumption that the global economy is headed for recession, an outcome that is increasingly being priced in by markets.  Long / Short Stock Lists. (1) EM Factors: For each style factor family, we present long and short stock lists based on highest/lowest EM Q-scores to help navigate each factor (Ta