全球投资策略-关键货币观点：美元强势不退

Global FX Strategy & Global EM Research24 June 2022Key Currency ViewsStrong USD isn't retiringGlobal FX Strategy & EM MarketsMeera Chandan AC(44-20) 7134-2924meera.chandan@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcPaul Meggyesi(44-20) 7134-2714paul.meggyesi@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcArindam Sandilya(65) 6882-7759arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore BranchBenjamin Shatil(81-3) 6736-1730benjamin.shatil@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Patrick R Locke(1-212) 834-4254patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCBen K Jarman(61-2) 9003-7982ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia LimitedTohru Sasaki(81-3) 6736-7717tohru.sasaki@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Jason Hunter(1-212) 270-0034jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCAnezka Christovova(44-20) 7742-2630anezka.christovova@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcGisela R Brant(1-212) 834-3947gisela.brant@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCSee page 42 for analyst certification and important disclosures. We have been recommending a defensive and long USD stance in currencies all year, given the combination of soft growth, high inflation and tightening monetary policy. Developments in the past month—even more hawkish central banks including the Fed, plummeting PMI and consumer confidence, rising energy prices in Europe—all reinforce this stance… …we recommended upsizing defensive exposure intra-month. Increased USD longs vs. G10 high beta FX; initiated short cross (NZD) /yen as a late-cycle hedge and stay short EM.  Bias on JPY has shifted. USD/JPY projected to be higher in baseline (140) but focus is now on JPY-crosses which offer attractive late-cycle hedges.  Key FX forecasts remain unchanged. EUR/USD is still expected to test parity; terminal USD/CNY target remains at 6.95. Changes in FX targets are generally idiosyncratic.  G10: USD/JPY peak upped to 140. GBP/USD trough unchanged at 1.14. Major upgrade for CHF on SNB pivot; EUR/CHF terminal target to 0.92 from 1.02. USD/CAD 4Q 1.30 (unchanged), 2Q'23 1.33. EUR/NOK 10.35 (from 9.90) on global growth risks. EM: USD/KRW terminal 1320 (1330); Bearish INR; 1y 80.0 (79.0).USD/BRL 5.30 in 4Q. USD/MXN trajectory lowered broadly (1Q23 20.50 from 21.6). EUR/HUF year-end 425 (395). EUR/CZK 1y 26.5 from 26.0.US recession probability continues to rise, a move that is usually accompanied by a stronger USD Market depth by market*; Starting value indexed to 100Source: J.P. Morgan-20-15-10-5051015202502040608010012019781989200020112022USD TWI; %oyaProbability of recession - all economic indicatorsContentsKey Currency Drivers2Technicals5USD Index9JPY11EUR13GBP15CHF17NOK19SEK21CAD23AUD & NZD25MXN29BRL30ZAR & TRY31CE4 & ILS32KRW & INR33CNY34J.P. Morgan Forecasts352Global FX Strategy24 June 2022Meera Chandan(44-20) 7134-2924meera.chandan@jpmorgan.comPatrick R Locke(1-212) 834-4254patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.comKey Currency Drivers We have been recomme