俄罗斯-乌克兰成绩单（英）

D I S C U S S I O N PA P E RF E B R U A R Y 2 0 2 3AV O I D I N G G R E AT P O W E R WA R P R O J E C TRussia-Ukraine War Report CardGraham AllisonKate DavidsonAvoiding Great Power War Project Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138www.belfercenter.orgStatements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the author(s) and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School, or the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.Copyright 2023, President and Fellows of Harvard CollegeD I S C U S S I O N PA P E RF E B R U A R Y 2 0 2 3AV O I D I N G G R E AT P O W E R WA R P R O J E C TRussia-Ukraine War Report CardGraham AllisonKate DavidsoniiRussia-Ukraine War Report CardThe Avoiding Great Power War ProjectThe Avoiding Great Power War Project is an interdisciplinary effort to investigate, analyze, and produce policy-relevant research on great power relations. Directed by Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, the project builds upon a basic premise: the historical record of great power conflict can serve as an aid to understanding the dynamics between today’s great powers, namely the United States, Russia, and China.iiiBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Harvard Kennedy SchoolAbout the Authors Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he was the founding dean. He is a former U.S. assistant defense secretary, former director of Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and the author most recently of the international bestseller Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?Kate Davidson is a Research Assistant at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, where she works on the Avoiding Great Power War Project. Her work focuses on Russia and the Russia-Ukraine War, and she is the Principal RA on the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.AcknowledgmentsWe would like to thank the members of the Harvard Russia Small Group, includ-ing Amos Yadlin and Evan Sankey, each of whose comments substantially improved the Report Card. None of them is responsible for the final product, and any errors or misjudgments are the responsibility of the authors.vBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Harvard Kennedy SchoolTable of ContentsIntroduction …………………………………………………………………………………… 1Report Card ……………………………………………………………………………………. 4The Russia-Ukraine War in Historical Perspective………………………………13Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………. 16Appendix ................................................................................................... 18viRussia-Ukraine War Report CardFILE - Ukrainian soldiers prepare a U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer to fire at Russian positions in Kherson region, Ukraine, Jan. 9, 2023. (AP Photo/Libkos, File)1Belfer Center for Science and