房地产行业深度报告2023年房地产行业投资策略：曙光金海近，晴雪玉峰高

Equity Research·Industry Research·Real EstateReal Estate Research Report1 / 7东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]Real Estate Investment Strategy 2023: the dawn is comingOutperform (Maintain)Investment Thesis Overview of this round of real estate downside cycle and recovery path. As thisround of real estate downside cycle began with deleveraging in the supply-side andhousing bubble & financialization has been curbed currently, we believe that credit repairof supply-side and balance sheet repair of real estate enterprise are the prerequisites forindustry recovery. Real estate policies from local to central authorities have playedcrucial roles in both supply and demand sides, while policy strength and frequency aregradually increasing. Moreover, the credit, bond, and equity financing channels fordevelopers have been in the clear, and the upcoming financing will improve the cashflow of quality real estate enterprises. The industry recovery will follow the path of "cashflow recovery of developer - stimulus policies promotion in demand-side - expectationreverse of all parties- housing sales rebound", and we are still at the first stage. The medium to long-term housing demand in China is stable, and we predict thatcommodity housing can still maintain a sales scale of 1.2 billion square meters by2030. According to our previous report "How much room is left for China's real estatemarket in the future", China's annual new urban residential demand is expected to bearound 1.26 billion square meters in 2022 and 1.2 billion square meters in 2030. Demandfor housing upgrade will overtake the demand for growing urban population, and becomethe largest housing demand in 2026. Adjustment in the supply-side drives the optimization of the industry landscape. 1)Sales: sales of quality private enterprises and leading central state-owned enterpriseshave stabilized, and nationwide sales are expected to pick up after 2Q23. The marketmay no longer be "scale-only" in the future, and those who continue to expand willmainly be leading central state-owned enterprises and a few high-quality privateenterprises. The housing enterprises that focus on the regional markets and productquality will go further, and most private enterprises will become regional developersafter surviving. 2) Land auction: as central state-owned enterprises and urbaninvestment groups are expanding their balance sheets, we expect the land market to lagslightly behind housing sales in 2023. A real rebound for the land market in 2023depends on the time when the land acquisition ability of private enterprises recovers. 3)Financing: central state-owned enterprises with credit advantages have better financingcapacity and their relative financing advantage may continue to expand, while theconfidence recovery of private enterprises lags behind the whole industry and it will takemore time for them to repair the balance sheet. We are modestly optimistic about investment, cautiously optimistic about sales, andnot