新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场固定收益：选择的秘密武器？

21 October 2020Deutsche BankResearch Emerging Europe Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Fixed Income EM Special Publication Date EM/CEEMEA Fixed Income – the secret weapon of choice? EM Fixed Income (EMFI) has significantly outperformed EMFX so far this year. This is not necessarily a surprise considering that defensive asset classes tend to do better during periods of large external shocks with widening output gaps, falling inflation and as a response aggressive monetary policy measures. It is interestingly, however – and this is contrary to previous recovery periods, that EMFI only slightly underperformed EMFX during the recovery period over the summer/autumn. This is even more remarkable given the sharp rebound in other risky asset classes - particularly global/US equities.Given the underperformance vs other risky assets and the subdued performance compared to EMFI or EM hard currency debt, it is therefore quite an easy choice to pick EMFX has the asset class when expressing a more constructive view on emerging markets. This is even more so the case, when looking into our long-term valuation models, which find EMFX as noticeably more undervalued than EMFI. Overall, we don’t disagree with this view. However, despite the relatively strong performance YTD, we argue that EMFI is still an attractive asset class. In fact, from risk-reward, maybe even more attractive than EMFX. In this special report, we take a closer look into this topic.In the first section, we discuss the current attractiveness of EMFI in general, and CEEMEA in particular. For this, we evaluate a number of fundamental and technical factors that are generally considered to be important drivers of local markets. In the second section, we update our CEEMEA Fixed Income Portfolio. We look into bond valuation, update our bond yield forecasts and explain in detail our strategy views for each local fixed income market. EM/CEEMEA FI - still an attractive asset class...nEMFI should benefit from term-premium compression in case of an EMFX rallynEMFI should outperform in case of an unexpected external shocknEMFI provides intrinsic value due to record high term-premium, wide ASW-spreads, high FX-hedged bond yields, light positioning and still reasonably attractive long-term valuation. Christian WietoskaStrategist+44-20-754-52424Ankit JainResearch Associate+91-22-6181-1634Naman MishraResearch AssociateDeutsche Bank AG/LondonDISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 064/04/2020. DURING THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 2018 to MARCH 2020 DISCLOSURES MAY HAVE DISPLAYED INCOMPLETE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.Distributed on: 21/10/2020 08:25:06 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa21 October 2020EM Special PublicationPage 2Deutsche Bank AG/LondonThe CEEMEA Fixed Income Portfolio - be constructive nWe are expressing a modestly bullish bias on CEEMEA local markets into year-end. nAcross the high-yielders, we overweight South Africa (12Y-17Y), express a modest o