全球汽车行业-行业经验和公司启示

21 June 2022Deutsche BankResearch Asia Europe North America Consumer Autos & Auto Technology Industry DB Global Automotive Conference Date Industry Update Industry lessons and company takeaways We hosted Deutsche Bank’s Global Automotive Conference last week, gathering ~500 participants over 3 days, including ~60 auto, auto tech and mobility corporates. In this note we summarize our key takeaways and learnings from presentations and fireside chats, on current topics including supply chain, macro conditions, and company specific expectations for the rest of the year and heading into 2023. Please also refer to all available fireside chat replays at this link.We found autos managements’ tone cautiously optimistic as the industry looks ahead to volume recovery, and with consumer demand showing very limited signs of softening. Overall suppliers' consensus is that Q2 earnings will likely represent the trough of the year, reflecting Covid-related shutdowns in China, disruptions in supply chain from the war in Ukraine, and high raw materials and other inflationary input costs, with still-limited commercial recoveries. Looking ahead, industry participants anticipate some improvement in production outlook over the rest of the year, with demand in N.A. expected to remain strong, Europe still volatile, and China largely up, dependent on recovery from Covid in the second half and government stimulus. While chip supply is also expected to improve sequentially, managements expressed concerns that supply may still not being able to keep up with demand until 2023. Moreover, cost pressure could continue to remain a headwind, especially in the non-materials category. But managements from the supplier group sounded generally optimistic about progress made in their commercial recovery negotiations with OEM customers, although expressed it may take time to come to final settlements, possibly pushing some recoveries into 2023. Overall, 2023 was described as offering potential for strong earnings growth. Finally, companies continued to note continued acceleration in EV transition both in the consumer and commercial space, as well as momentum in ADAS/Lidar launch.Overall, this supports our view that auto suppliers may now be the best vehicle to invest in the expected auto recovery, as their earnings stand to benefit from industry volume improvement and commercial recoveries. While OEMs could continue to achieve strong earnings, in light of continued robust vehicle demand and pricing, investors’ interest could remain more limited in light of pricing and mix risk amid pressure on consumer. However, we particularly continue to see strong value in names that have catalysts (like Porsche/VW) and re-rating potential (like Mercedes) on top of very strong cash flows, especially with a more mid to long-term view.Emmanuel Rosner, CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-2503367Tim RokossaHead of Research+49-69-910-31998Christoph LaskawiResearch Analyst+49-69-910-31924Edison Yu