全球化工行业-全球材料大会：主要收获

10 June 2022Deutsche BankResearch Europe North America Industrials Chemicals / Specialty Industry Global Materials Conference Date Industry Update Global Materials Conference: Key TakeawaysDemand remains strong in the US; bullish outlook in China; uncertainties in EuropeWe hosted 19 chemical companies at our 13th Annual Global Materials Conference on June 8-9 in NYC. These included APD, ASH, CBT, CE, DOW, DD, EMN, ECL, ECVT, HUN, IFF, LIN, LYB, KWR, SHW, TSE, UNVR, VNTR and WLK.Overall, the tone was positive as demand trends remain strong across most end markets and geographies with only modest signs of consumer driven weakness, pricing continues to accelerate, underpinned by persistent inflation and supply remains tight and inventories remain across most of the industry.Key takeaways include:i) June quarter demand has been strong, led by electronics, building & construction, chemicals & refining, packaging and manufacturing. By region, the US is seeing the strongest growth with Europe relatively stable due to various cross currents and China has been weak, up until now, due to COVID related lockdowns.ii) modest pockets of consumer driven weakness have started to appear in Europe (DIY paint, building & construction) and the US (DIY paint, durables).iii) China demand is expected to increase strongly starting in the mid-to-latter part of the September quarter as COVID lockdowns ease and economic stimulus is implemented ahead of the Party Congress in November.iv) US demand is expected to remain strong in 2H but order books of typically 60 days or less, the level of conviction, given increasing pressure on the consumer from high energy and food costs, is low.v) European demand is expected to slow in 2H’22 due to pressure from elevated energy prices.vi) selling price increases continue to be implemented at high rates and with little resistance. There is no evidence (yet) of demand destruction from what has been unprecedented levels of price increases; most companies expect to fully catch-up if not exceed higher raw material energy and freight costs in 2H’22; a large portion David BegleiterResearch Analyst+1-212-250-5473David HuangResearch Associate+1-212-469-5307Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 051/04/2022. Distributed on: 10/06/2022 10:46:13 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa10 June 2022Chemicals / SpecialtyGlobal Materials ConferencePage 2Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.of these price increases are expected to be retained if and when raw material and energy costs move lower.vii) cost inflation remains high and persistent. While raw material, energy and freight costs a