德银+全球经济步入衰退

14 July 2022Deutsche BankResearch Europe Germany Economics Focus Germany Date nMoving into recession. A likely further decline in Russian gas supply after the maintenance of NS1 will necessitate additional savings. While we do not expect a full rationing, we believe the economic consequences will together with a US recession and other headwinds push Germany into a recession in H2 2022. Given that prospects for Russian gas deliveries have darkened since February, this energy shock will not hit Germany by surprise or unprepared. Hence, we expect a modest but rather drawn-out GDP decline, as the economy gradually adjusts. After a 1 ¼% expansion in 2022, we forecast German GDP will shrink by around 1% in 2023, largely because consumers will not be able to offset the real income loss by further dissaving. In a “tap remains turned off” scenario, we expect a rationing of gas leading to a GDP slump between 5% and 6% in 2023.nInflation: Peak still to come. Although the temporary relief measures helped materially to push headline inflation down in June, the underlying inflation momentum has remained strong. We have raised our forecast for the annual average CPI to 8% for 2022 and 6% for 2023.nUkrainian refugees cause unemployment to rise, wage negotiations could run into difficult waters. Ukrainian refugees can now receive basic allowance and show up in the unemployment rate, now expected to fall only to 5.3% in 2022 (2021: 5.7%). The upcoming wage negotiations could run into difficult waters. Collectively agreed wages will probably increase by 3% in 2022 and at least 4 ½% in 2023, in our view.nPublic finances: Gas crisis puts policy goal of re-adhering to debt brake by 2023 at risk. Given growing economic headwinds it has become increasingly uncertain if the government will be actually able to bring the finances back in line with the debt brake by 2023. The gas crisis, soaring inflation and our new recession call are expected to put considerable pressure on public finances.nGerman industry: Gas crisis is a game changer for Germany as an industrial location. We expect domestic production to decline by 1% in 2022 and to stagnate in 2023. The gas crisis and the switch from quite cheap (Russian) pipeline gas to more expensive LNG could turn out to be a structural game changer for the export-oriented business model.nNo summer lull, but intense crisis management. Contingency planning in case of supply disruptions and further demand-side management is expected over the next few weeks. Barring limited ideological controversies, the coalition parties continue to constructively work with each other.Table of ContentForecast tables2Moving into recession3Inflation: Slower in June, but not yet at an inflection point – peak still to come10Ukrainian refugees cause unemployment to rise, wage negotiations could run into difficult waters15Public finances: Gas crisis puts policy goal of re-adhering to debt brake by 2023 at risk18German industry: Gas crisis is a g