德银+德国经济图表（2023年3季度）-英

ResearchDeutsche BankSeptember 2023Germany: Economic ChartbookTeam Economic Research FrankfurtStefan Schneider | Chief German Economist | stefan-b.schneider@db.comMarc Schattenberg | Senior Economist | marc.schattenberg@db.com IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 097/10/2022. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETEDISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.ResearchDeutsche BankSeptember 20232German GDP forecast lowered to -0.5% in 2023 and 0.3% in 2024. After the technical recession in winter 22/23, the H1 recovery disappointed, as consumers are becoming more cautious. Given the weak PMIs, ifo and other high-frequency indicators, a renewed GDP qoq contraction in Q3 is now our baseline call. Various growth drivers are sputtering simultaneously. Recent downward revisions to Chinese GDP forecasts and a US recession still expected in Q4 promise little external support in H2 and into next year. The domestic economy is being burdened by higher financing costs and weak consumer confidence weighing on their propensity to buy, despite stabilizing incomes. Data on private household finance suggest that liquid funds have shifted into capital markets, rather than being spent.The German labor market is losing momentum. Leading indicators hint at cracks, but qualified labor is still in high demand. Wage increases in 2023 dominated by strong one-off payments, while pay scale rises will largely start in 2024.Headline inflation is set to fall considerably in 2023/24. By contrast, core inflation is likely to remain relatively sticky. Medium-term inflation expectations are still elevated and have ticked up again lately, although selling price expectations have fallen below their long-term average.Corporate lending substantially slowing. Higher interest rates and a low propensity to invest have put the breaks on loan demand.German green trade surplus. The global export market for low-carbon-technology products is growing faster than the export market for goods overall. EVs, hybrid cars, measuring instruments and machines drive Germany’s green trade surplus. Fiscal budget impact from energy price shock might be less severe. But debt interest payments are set to increase strongly.German office market. Infrastructure bottlenecks could be an underappreciated obstacle for office demand, especially in A cities.An historic flashback? We revisit the challenges Germany was facing when the Economist called it the ‘sick man of the euro’ and which policy measures transformed the country into an economic superstar a decade later.Key takeawaysGDP now expected to fall by -0.5% in 2023, 2024 cut to 0.3% ResearchDeutsche BankSeptember 20233Germany & EA ResearchLatest Macro Research:➢Electromobility: Competition for market share intensifies, Focus Germany, Jul 12➢"Midterm review" – reforms to tackle the new growth challenge, Focus Germany, Jul 25➢ECB Reaction: A low-conviction peak, Focus Euro