中国AI 2.0——迈入新阶段（英）

MAsia Pacific InsightAsia TechnologyChina AI 2.0 – Entering a New PhaseMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Shawn KimEquity Analyst Shawn.Kim@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1018 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Duan LiuEquity Analyst Duan.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7357 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Cindy HuangEquity Analyst Cindy.Huang@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2915 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Robin XingChief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFAEconomist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 Gary YuEquity Analyst Gary.Yu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6918 Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+Charlie ChanEquity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725 Sharon ShihEquity Analyst Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2865 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Yang LiuEquity Analyst Yang.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1911 Daisy Dai, CFAEquity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7310 Lydia LinEquity Analyst Lydia.Lin@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1572 S. Korea TechnologyAsia PacificIndustry ViewAttractiveChina is on a path to drive simultaneous AI advancements across frontier sectors, spanning robotics, new-energy vehicles, and LLMs. Its "AI Plus" initiative is rapidly injecting its newfound AI capabilities and AI agents into world-class smart products, services and embodied intelligence. China’s AI is entering a new phase – one defined less by catching up in capability and more by capturing value. The narrative has shifted decisively from training to inference, from technology to application, and from potential to real earnings. Rather than competing purely at the frontier, China is optimizing for speed, cost efficiency, and system-level integration, enabling AI to diffuse rapidly across the real economy. At the same time, China semiconductor self-sufficiency rate continues to improve from 41% in 2025 to 86% by 2030 in our estimates, supporting a more resilient and cost-efficient deployment.At the macro level, AI will become a medium-term productivity lever. We estimate that AI could lift China's total factor productivity growth by ~3ppt cumulatively over the next decade, partly offsetting the aging population and bringing 2035 potential GDP to a level 3.5ppt higher than the trajectory without AI adoption. But its near-term growth impact will likely be muted, with positives from AI-related capex cycle and modest initial productivity gains offset by transitional labor disruption. Capturing the "rate of change". AI adoption is broadening, with enabler/adopter penetration rising to ~51% of coverage from 43% in two years. Our latest 1H26 AlphaWise China CIO survey indicates that 47% plan to start their first AI project within the next year (an increase on 40% in 2H25). The economics are becoming tangible: AI adopters have seen NTM EPS rise by 62% in the past two years, significantly outperforming MSCI China at 10%, alongside 12-13ppt EBIT