美股-生物制药行业-美国生物制药行业策略分析

Equity Research 26 February 2020 CORE Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 239. Restricted - Internal U.S. Biopharmaceuticals Initiating Coverage We are launching coverage of the U.S. Biopharmaceuticals industry with a Positive view and a universe of 16 large- and smid-cap stocks. Our Positive view is driven by waning near-term concerns on drug pricing reform, P&L upside, evidence of strong innovation, an accommodating regulatory landscape, and modestly attractive valuations relative to the broader market. We are hosting a conference call at 11am ET on Feb 27 (dial-in 800-493-6965 (US); 706-679-5836 (OUS); passcode 9970835). Our Overweight-rated names are tilted toward (1) higher-quality large-cap growth narratives with dominant commercial franchises, improving margins, and relatively lower loss of exclusivity (LOE) risk, and (2) smid-cap names with near-launch narratives and pipeline optionality. The negative turn in sentiment on Merck (MRK, $93 PT) seems overdone to us; we don’t see Keytruda being threatened in lung cancer from Bristol’s CM-227 or CM-9LA datasets, and operating margin expansion is significant over 2021-25. For Eli Lilly (LLY, $160 PT), we are bullish on tirzepatide phase 3 data extending the diabetes franchise into the 2030s, while P&L leverage is starting to kick in. At Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN, $530 PT), Eylea and Dupixent are both set up to exceed 2020 estimates, while Libtayo NSCLC data provides attractive optionality. For Biogen (BIIB, $389 PT), we think aducanumab for Alzheimer's disease gets approved. For Acceleron Pharma (XLRN, $107 PT), sotatercept data in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) opens up a $2bn+ opportunity, and we model Reblozyl with $3bn+ peak potential. On Applied Therapeutics (APLT, $64 PT), we like the combination of a 2021 launch in galactosemia, a pivotal diabetic cardiomyopathy read-out in 2021, and significant optionality around OUS rights to both programs. Our five Equal Weight-rated names are Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY, $69 PT), where we are skeptical on near-term Opdivo lung and kidney cancer datasets moving the needle commercially; we’re positive on pivotal Tyk2 data, but that dataset isn’t expected until late 2020; AbbVie (ABBV, $97 PT), where the strong Skyrizi launch is now priced in, and Humira erosion in 2023 still looms and could be more severe than Street estimates; Amgen (AMGN, $235 PT), where we could see meaningful erosion headwinds in 1H, offset by potential KRAS data at ASCO and a compelling 2H catalyst (omecamtiv, tezepelumab); Pfizer (PFE, $36 PT), where abrocitinib data