美股投资策略-美国中小盘股策略：小盘股的估值陷阱

Equity Research 14 June 2022U.S. Small & Mid Cap Strategy Small cap valuation trap Cheapened valuations and improved fundamentals make small caps an enticing relative value play, but a treacherous macro environment will likely continue to put a lid on their performance in the short to medium term. Rising inflation leaves potential for more downside in valuations and will pressure margins. We appreciate your consideration in the Institutional Investor All-America & All-Canada Research Survey 2022. View our analysts. Vote for Barclays. Small caps have lagged significantly; Valuations have cheapened markedly; Fundamentals have snapped back. Despite a brief period of outperformance following the announcement of vaccines, small caps have underperformed large caps significantly over the last ~18 months. Small caps are now trading at their largest discount to large caps (~20% discount on LTM EV/EBITDA) compared to a long term premium of ~12.5%. At the same time, fundamentals have snapped back and pulled ahead of pre-pandemic levels. EBITDA and top-line growth are strong, margins are at peak levels (ex-financial EBITDA margin of 11.6%), and leverage has declined sharply. But a tough macro environment, especially inflation, will continue to put a lid on small caps. Rising inflation is a key headwind for small caps, pressuring both valuation multiples and margins. We estimated ~20% further downside to multiples should high inflation persist. The expected reduction in Goods consumption also leaves small cap earnings vulnerable to declines. In addition, the increase in recession risk is likely to disproportionately impact smalls. A defensive stance is warranted over the medium term: In light of the macro uncertainty that is likely to prevail in the short to medium term, we recommend (1) lower exposure to consumer exposed sectors (staples, discretionary, and communications services), (2) Value over Growth given continued pressure on multiples from high inflation, and (3) a preference for stocks with high cash levels and free cash flow (we provide a list in this note).Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 17 .COREU.S. Small & Mid Cap Strategy Venu Krishna, CFA +1 212 526 7328 venu.krishna@barclays.com BCI, US Elias Krauklis +1 212 526 9376 elias.krauklis@barclays.com BCI, USCompleted: 13-Jun-22, 23:58 GMT Released: 14-Jun-22, 04:10 GMTRestricted - ExternalBarclays | U.S. Small & Mid Cap Strategy14 June 20222Time to buy small caps? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Small Cap positi