美股大盘银行业-压力测试预览：所有银行都应闪付并增加股息，股票回购在短期内退潮

Equity Research 16 June 2022U.S. Large-Cap Banks Stress Test Preview: All Should Pass and Hike Dividends, Share Buyback to Ebb Near-term We expect our entire coverage to pass next week’s stress test despite upward pressure to SCBs, potentially helping to ease recent concerns. We also expect almost every bank involved to hike its dividend this year and next. Still, share buyback will likely be more subdued in the near term as capital ratios have normalized. We appreciate your consideration in the Institutional Investor All-America & All-Canada Research Survey 2022. View our analysts. Vote for Barclays. Executive Summary While the past couple of years there was some confusion around the advent of the stressed capital buffer (SCB) and COVID-19 related retesting and restrictions, this year appears more straightforward. That said, when the results are released next Thursday afternoon, against an uncertain backdrop, we expect our entire coverage to remain above their risk-based minimum capital requirements, which should be well received. Still, the SCB is very much scenario-dependent and given the increase in the unemployment rate from the current low level to a 10% minimum, could place upward pressure on SCBs in this year’s exam relative to last year. Nevertheless, comparing last year’s capital requirements to capital levels at 1Q22 shows the median bank is 230bps above its current minimum with every bank at least 70bps above. We expect almost every CCAR bank under coverage to increase its dividend this year and next. Still, dollar share repurchase will likely be more subdued in this upcoming SCB cycle than the prior one. This is driven by several factors, including capital ratios now much closer to internal targets post last year’s pent-up demand, increased loan/RWA growth, a sharp jump in AOCI losses impacting CET1 for Category I and II banks and TCE for all banks, rising GSIB scores for some, and increased economic uncertainty. Also keep in mind, disclosures post results (after the 2-business day quiet period), will likely be varied by bank.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 19 .CORE U.S. Large-Cap Banks Jason M. Goldberg, CFA +1 212 526 8580 jason.goldberg@barclays.com BCI, US Inna Blyakher +1 212 526 3904 inna.blyakher@barclays.com BCI, US Brian Morton, CFA +1 212 526 2163 brian.morton@barclays.com BCI, US Matthew Kesselhaut +1 212 526 0181 matthew.kesselhaut@barclays.com BCI, USU.S. Large-Cap Banks POSITIVECompleted: 16-Jun-22, 00:47 GMT Released: 16-Jun-22, 04:10 GMTRestricted - ExternalBarclays | U.S. Large-Cap Banks16 June 20222Executive Summary