全球投资策略-帝斯曼-芬美意合并：其余公司会有什么反应？

Equity Research 20 June 2022Global Consumer Ingredients DSM-Firmenich: How will the others react? DSM’s acquisition of Firmenich is the latest move by a leading ingredients player aiming for increased market share by offering customers more integrated solutions. We believe this model is set to lead to further consolidation. In this report we discuss the ramifications for the other listed players. Key conclusions There is no conclusive evidence yet which integrated solutions model will prove successful. •However, the threat from large, well-resourced players with broad portfolios and capability sets leaves the smaller, less-integrated ones vulnerable. We see DSM (OW) as an attractive way to be exposed to the integration trend. The strong fit •with Firmenich and the opportunities arising from combining the capabilities in taste & health should allow it to deliver the highest growth among the ingredients players we cover over the coming years. IFF (UW) will now face tougher competition for integrated solutions as well as investor •capital. The DSM deal and financial targets also further underpin our scepticism regarding the 26% EBITDA margin target. The continued consolidation of the space at high valuation multiples increases our •conviction in the relative attraction of Tate & Lyle (OW) which is executing well and has much improved structural growth prospects post the deconsolidation of the US Primary Products business. Trading at a material discount to the broader peer group with a strong balance sheet, 100% free float and long-term supply agreements with a JV partner that withstand any change of control – the risk/reward remains positive, in our view. Kerry‘s (OW) strategy of making an early push into integrated solutions looks increasingly •vindicated but is facing mounting competition. Kerry might feel pressure to respond with larger M&A, but we believe bolt-on technologies that can be scaled globally are likely to create more value.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 18 .FOCUS European Chemicals Sebastian Satz, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 7201 sebastian.satz@barclays.com Barclays, UK Alex Stewart, CFA +44 (0)20 3555 4957 alex.stewart@barclays.com Barclays, UK Amy Lian +44 (0)20 3134 0179 amy.lian@barclays.com Barclays, UK Anil Shenoy +91 (0)22 6175 2487 anil.shenoy@barclays.com Barclays, UK European Consumer Staples Alex Sloane +44 (0)20 3555 0645 alexander.sloane@barclays.com Barc