UBS Economics-Global Economic Forecast Database _UBS forecasts - changes t...-119422064

ab24 December 2025Global ResearchGlobal Economic Forecast Database UBS forecasts - changes this weekLatest global economic forecasts All UBS economic forecasts (>50 indicators for roughly 40 countries/regions) are accessible in Excel through our "Global Forecast Database" which can be found here.For ease of reference, we also circulate the Database tables, on a weekly basis, sorted by Indicator and Region (pg 7-73). A summary can be found on pg 4. Pg 5 shows forecast changes compared to a week ago and pg 6 shows how our forecasts deviate from consensus. If you have questions on specific regions, our contact list is on pg 74. HIGHLIGHTS: Q3 real GDP growth surprised to the upside in both US and New Zealand. On another note, we published the European inflation preview for December. You are signed up to Global Economic Research on our Neo platform. Should you wish to unsubscribe from the 'Global Economic Forecast Database' without losing access to other economics research, please email ubs-economics@ubs.com.Source: UBSPlease note that forecasts are continuously updated, so this publication is correct as of the date of publication. Intra-week forecast updates can be found here. This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 76. EconomicsGlobalAnna TitarevaEconomistanna.titareva@ubs.com+44-20-7568 5083Arend KapteynEconomistarend.kapteyn@ubs.com+44-20-7567 0531Global Economic Forecast Database 24 December 2025ab 2Contents Forecast Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Current forecasts vs last week. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Current forecasts vs Consensus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Forecasts by indicator. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Real GDP, %y/y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Quarterly Real GDP, %q/q saar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Consumer Expenditure, %y/y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Government Consumption, %y/y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Fixed Investment, %y/y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Exports, %y/y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Imports, %y/y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Unemployment Rate, % . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Consumer Prices, %y/y (average). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Consumer Prices, %y/y (year-end) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Domestic credit, %y/y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Domestic bank