UBS Economics-APAC Economic Perspectives _Presentation ASEAN Economic Out...-119170522

ab3 December 2025Global ResearchAPAC Economic PerspectivesPresentation: ASEAN Economic Outlook 2026-27This report has been prepared by UBS AG, Singapore Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 74. EconomicsAsiaGrace LimEconomistgrace-k.lim@ubs.com+65-6495 5965Claire LongEconomistclaire.long@ubs.com+65 6495 7426APAC Economic Perspectives 3 December 2025ab 2Asia and ASEAN EconomicsGlobal ResearchDecember 2025Outlook 2026-27APAC Economic Perspectives 3 December 2025ab 3Source : Haver, CEIC, National Statistics, UBS forecasts 1/calendar year average * For CPI, excludes Venezuela.Global Key Economic IndicatorsGlobal Assumptionsend '26end '27end '26end '27EUR/USD1.141.1410y US Treasury yield4.004.50USD/JPY152.0152.010y Bund yield3.003.00GBP/USD1.301.3010y JGB2.252.50EUR/CHF0.900.8810y Gilts4.054.10USD/RMB7.107.00Brent oil price (avg)64.070.0Real GDP 1/CPI (% avg)Current account (% GDP)Fiscal balance (% GDP)2025F2026F2027F2025F2026F2027F2026F2027F2026F2025F2026F2027FUS1.91.71.92.83.02.4-3.7-2.6-2.4-6.1-6.2-6.3Japan0.80.71.03.11.62.24.74.74.7-0.8-2.3-2.8Canada1.51.81.82.02.12.0-1.2-1.5-1.7-1.3-1.2-1.1UK1.41.11.43.42.22.0-3.0-2.4-2.4-4.5-3.8-3.0Eurozone1.41.11.42.11.82.01.51.41.4-2.9-3.0-3.1EMEA2.62.52.711.88.87.00.40.10.4-3.3-2.9-2.3Asia (ex Japan)5.04.74.80.91.71.92.52.52.5-4.9-5.1-4.9Latin America*1.92.12.48.96.04.5-1.7-1.5-1.8-5.6-6.0-5.7G71.41.31.62.62.42.2-1.6-0.9-0.8-4.8-5.0-5.1DM1.61.51.82.52.32.1-0.6-0.10.0-4.3-4.4-4.5EM4.44.24.43.93.53.11.11.11.3-5.2-5.3-5.0World*3.23.13.33.33.02.70.00.30.4-4.6-4.7-4.6APAC Economic Perspectives 3 December 2025ab 4Source : Haver, UBS estimates. *India estimates are for financial year I.e. 2025=FY26 (Apr25-Mar26). **3m SIBOR, % eop. ***1-yr deposit rate, %eop Summary of EM Asia baseline forecastsReal Growth (%YoY)Consumer Prices (%YoY)20242025F2026F2027F20242025F2026F2027FChina5.04.94.54.60.20.00.40.8HK2.53.12.32.52.01.61.81.7India*6.56.86.46.54.72.44.34.0Indonesia5.05.05.25.12.31.82.62.6Malaysia5.14.84.44.81.81.51.91.9Philippines5.64.85.35.73.21.72.62.9Singapore4.44.22.62.82.40.92.02.1Korea 2.11.22.02.22.32.11.91.7Taiwan4.26.53.33.02.11.71.61.9Thailand2.52.22.02.40.4-0.10.61.2Vietnam7.16.47.06.53.63.33.63.4Policy Rate (%EOP)Exchange Rate (vs USD, EOP)20242025F2026F2027F20242025F2026F2027FChina***1.501.301.201.207.307.057.107.00HK3.823.002.502.257.757.807.807.80India*6.255.255.255.2587889093Indonesia6.004.504.004.0016162166001720017400Malaysia3.002.752.752.754.474.254.304.30Philippines5.754.504.254.2558586264Singapore**2.111.200.900.901.361.281.321.32Korea 3.502.502.001.751410140014601500Taiwan2.002.001.881.6333303231Thailand2.251.250.750.7534323232Vietnam4.504.254.254.2525386263002650027295APAC Economic Perspectives 3 December 2025ab 5We expect ASEAN-6 growth to slow in 2026E to 4.8%, below trend•We expect ASEAN-6 GDP growth to slow to 4.8% in