2026年经济展望半杯满（英）-William Blair

Please refer to important disclosures on pages 25 and 26. Analyst certification is on page 25.William Blair or an affiliate does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice. The opinions and recommendations here-in do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommen-dations of particular securities, financial instruments, or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein.Economic Outlook 2026Glass Half Full: Positives > Negatives Equity ResearchEconomicsDecember 8, 2025Richard de Chazal +44 20 7868 4489rdechazal@williamblair.comLouis Mukama+1 312 364 8867lmukama@williamblair.com2 Richard de Chazal +44 20 7868 4489William Blair ContentsClosing Out a Year of Heightened Uncertainty, With Rising Growth Prospects ..............3Domestic Policy Uncertainty Eases, Foreign Policy Risks Remain Elevated ....................4Solid Consumer in 2026 With Help From the OBBB (and Potentially Tariff Dividend Checks) ........................................................................................................6Capex Momentum: More Than Just Data Centers ...........................................................12Inflation: The Key Vulnerability in 2026 ........................................................................14Fed Policy: Less Room to Maneuver Than Market Expects .............................................16Long Rates: Could Be Forced to Take Up the Slack .........................................................17Equity Investment Landscape ........................................................................................19Conclusion .......................................................................................................................243 Richard de Chazal +44 20 7868 4489William BlairClosing Out a Year of Heightened Uncertainty, With Rising Growth Prospects One Word to Describe 2025—Uncertainty It is fair to say that President Trump has been the great “disrupter in chief” this term. If Presi-dent Clinton was famous for his ability to compartmentalize, President Trump’s innate—and no doubt tactical—ability seems to be to “flood the zone,” in an effort to simultaneously pro-voke and destabilize his opposition. As a result, economic policy gauges of uncertainty (exhibit 1) in 2025 are at their highest level since 1900. Thankfully, we believe this uncertainty will diminish in 2026.0100200300400500600700800May-00May-10May-20May-30May-40May-50May-60May-70May-80May-90May-00May-10May-20Exhibit 1U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index(News-based gauge of uncertainty across national media)Shaded Areas = Recessio